IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jeners/v11y2018i2p452-d132534.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Big Data Mining of Energy Time Series for Behavioral Analytics and Energy Consumption Forecasting

Author

Listed:
  • Shailendra Singh

    (Department of Software Engineering at Lakehead Univerity, Thunder Bay, ON, P7B 5E1, Canada)

  • Abdulsalam Yassine

    (Department of Software Engineering at Lakehead Univerity, Thunder Bay, ON, P7B 5E1, Canada)

Abstract

Responsible, efficient and environmentally aware energy consumption behavior is becoming a necessity for the reliable modern electricity grid. In this paper, we present an intelligent data mining model to analyze, forecast and visualize energy time series to uncover various temporal energy consumption patterns. These patterns define the appliance usage in terms of association with time such as hour of the day, period of the day, weekday, week, month and season of the year as well as appliance-appliance associations in a household, which are key factors to infer and analyze the impact of consumers’ energy consumption behavior and energy forecasting trend. This is challenging since it is not trivial to determine the multiple relationships among different appliances usage from concurrent streams of data. Also, it is difficult to derive accurate relationships between interval-based events where multiple appliance usages persist for some duration. To overcome these challenges, we propose unsupervised data clustering and frequent pattern mining analysis on energy time series, and Bayesian network prediction for energy usage forecasting. We perform extensive experiments using real-world context-rich smart meter datasets. The accuracy results of identifying appliance usage patterns using the proposed model outperformed Support Vector Machine (SVM) and Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) at each stage while attaining a combined accuracy of 81.82%, 85.90%, 89.58% for 25%, 50% and 75% of the training data size respectively. Moreover, we achieved energy consumption forecast accuracies of 81.89% for short-term (hourly) and 75.88%, 79.23%, 74.74%, and 72.81% for the long-term; i.e., day, week, month, and season respectively.

Suggested Citation

  • Shailendra Singh & Abdulsalam Yassine, 2018. "Big Data Mining of Energy Time Series for Behavioral Analytics and Energy Consumption Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(2), pages 1-26, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:11:y:2018:i:2:p:452-:d:132534
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/11/2/452/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/11/2/452/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Zhao, Hai-xiang & Magoulès, Frédéric, 2012. "A review on the prediction of building energy consumption," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 16(6), pages 3586-3592.
    2. Krzysztof Gajowniczek & Tomasz Ząbkowski, 2015. "Data Mining Techniques for Detecting Household Characteristics Based on Smart Meter Data," Energies, MDPI, vol. 8(7), pages 1-21, July.
    3. Deb, Chirag & Zhang, Fan & Yang, Junjing & Lee, Siew Eang & Shah, Kwok Wei, 2017. "A review on time series forecasting techniques for building energy consumption," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 902-924.
    4. Chengdong Li & Zixiang Ding & Dongbin Zhao & Jianqiang Yi & Guiqing Zhang, 2017. "Building Energy Consumption Prediction: An Extreme Deep Learning Approach," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-20, October.
    5. Kavousian, Amir & Rajagopal, Ram & Fischer, Martin, 2013. "Determinants of residential electricity consumption: Using smart meter data to examine the effect of climate, building characteristics, appliance stock, and occupants' behavior," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 184-194.
    6. Biswas, M.A. Rafe & Robinson, Melvin D. & Fumo, Nelson, 2016. "Prediction of residential building energy consumption: A neural network approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 117(P1), pages 84-92.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Venkatraj, V. & Dixit, M.K., 2022. "Challenges in implementing data-driven approaches for building life cycle energy assessment: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
    2. Li, Xiaoma & Zhou, Yuyu & Yu, Sha & Jia, Gensuo & Li, Huidong & Li, Wenliang, 2019. "Urban heat island impacts on building energy consumption: A review of approaches and findings," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 174(C), pages 407-419.
    3. Chou, Jui-Sheng & Tran, Duc-Son, 2018. "Forecasting energy consumption time series using machine learning techniques based on usage patterns of residential householders," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 165(PB), pages 709-726.
    4. Jason Runge & Radu Zmeureanu, 2021. "A Review of Deep Learning Techniques for Forecasting Energy Use in Buildings," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(3), pages 1-26, January.
    5. Zhong, Hai & Wang, Jiajun & Jia, Hongjie & Mu, Yunfei & Lv, Shilei, 2019. "Vector field-based support vector regression for building energy consumption prediction," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 242(C), pages 403-414.
    6. Papadopoulos, Sokratis & Kontokosta, Constantine E., 2019. "Grading buildings on energy performance using city benchmarking data," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 233, pages 244-253.
    7. Luo, X.J. & Oyedele, Lukumon O. & Ajayi, Anuoluwapo O. & Akinade, Olugbenga O. & Owolabi, Hakeem A. & Ahmed, Ashraf, 2020. "Feature extraction and genetic algorithm enhanced adaptive deep neural network for energy consumption prediction in buildings," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    8. Nweye, Kingsley & Nagy, Zoltan, 2022. "MARTINI: Smart meter driven estimation of HVAC schedules and energy savings based on Wi-Fi sensing and clustering," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 316(C).
    9. Wang, Lan & Lee, Eric W.M. & Hussian, Syed Asad & Yuen, Anthony Chun Yin & Feng, Wei, 2021. "Quantitative impact analysis of driving factors on annual residential building energy end-use combining machine learning and stochastic methods," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 299(C).
    10. Wei, Yixuan & Xia, Liang & Pan, Song & Wu, Jinshun & Zhang, Xingxing & Han, Mengjie & Zhang, Weiya & Xie, Jingchao & Li, Qingping, 2019. "Prediction of occupancy level and energy consumption in office building using blind system identification and neural networks," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 240(C), pages 276-294.
    11. Guillaume Guerard & Hugo Pousseur & Ihab Taleb, 2021. "Isolated Areas Consumption Short-Term Forecasting Method," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(23), pages 1-23, November.
    12. Rahman, Aowabin & Srikumar, Vivek & Smith, Amanda D., 2018. "Predicting electricity consumption for commercial and residential buildings using deep recurrent neural networks," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 212(C), pages 372-385.
    13. R. Rueda & M. P. Cuéllar & M. Molina-Solana & Y. Guo & M. C. Pegalajar, 2019. "Generalised Regression Hypothesis Induction for Energy Consumption Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(6), pages 1-22, March.
    14. Satre-Meloy, Aven, 2019. "Investigating structural and occupant drivers of annual residential electricity consumption using regularization in regression models," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 174(C), pages 148-168.
    15. Gonçalves, Rui & Ribeiro, Vitor Miguel & Pereira, Fernando Lobo, 2023. "Variable Split Convolutional Attention: A novel Deep Learning model applied to the household electric power consumption," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 274(C).
    16. Fathi, Soheil & Srinivasan, Ravi & Fenner, Andriel & Fathi, Sahand, 2020. "Machine learning applications in urban building energy performance forecasting: A systematic review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    17. Guo, Peiyang & Lam, Jacqueline C.K. & Li, Victor O.K., 2019. "Drivers of domestic electricity users’ price responsiveness: A novel machine learning approach," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 235(C), pages 900-913.
    18. Gde Dharma Nugraha & Ardiansyah Musa & Jaiyoung Cho & Kishik Park & Deokjai Choi, 2018. "Lambda-Based Data Processing Architecture for Two-Level Load Forecasting in Residential Buildings," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-20, March.
    19. Ahir, Rajesh K. & Chakraborty, Basab, 2021. "A meta-analytic approach for determining the success factors for energy conservation," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 230(C).
    20. Sunil Kumar Mohapatra & Sushruta Mishra & Hrudaya Kumar Tripathy & Akash Kumar Bhoi & Paolo Barsocchi, 2021. "A Pragmatic Investigation of Energy Consumption and Utilization Models in the Urban Sector Using Predictive Intelligence Approaches," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(13), pages 1-28, June.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:11:y:2018:i:2:p:452-:d:132534. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.