IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jecomi/v10y2022i5p106-d807271.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

An Empirical Analysis of Russian Regions’ Debt Sustainability

Author

Listed:
  • Sergey Evgenievich Barykin

    (Graduate School of Service and Trade, Peter the Great St. Petersburg Polytechnic University, 195251 St. Petersburg, Russia)

  • Alexey Aleksandrovich Mikheev

    (Moscow State Institute of International Relations (University), Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation, 119454 Moscow, Russia)

  • Elena Grigorievna Kiseleva

    (Graduate School of Industrial Management, Peter the Great St. Petersburg Polytechnic University, 195251 St. Petersburg, Russia)

  • Yuriy Evgenievich Putikhin

    (Department of Management, Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, 124167 Moscow, Russia)

  • Natalia Sergeevna Alekseeva

    (Graduate School of Industrial Management, Peter the Great St. Petersburg Polytechnic University, 195251 St. Petersburg, Russia)

  • Alexey Mikhaylov

    (Department of Banking and Financial Markets, Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, 124167 Moscow, Russia)

Abstract

This paper investigates the impact of the moderate growth of government borrowing on debt sustainability in 11 Russian regions over about 10 years, starting in 2010. The current study aims to assess the debt sustainability of the Russian region’s budget by determining Euclidean distance budget constraints and cluster analysis. This study is based on the methodology of hierarchical cluster analysis, which makes it possible to isolate regions of accumulation of objects from the aggregate data and combine them into homogeneous segments. The central hypothesis of this study is that by using this method, it is possible to increase the accuracy of the values that limit budget constraints in a region’s financial system. This study, using open data from the Federal State Statistics Service, is based on a database of statistical, financial, and economic indicators of the Russian economy. The calculations include about 45 macroeconomic indicators, which reflect the ratios of socio-economic development of the region’s financial system. The methodology described in the paper for assessing the debt sustainability of budget policy proves the need to calculate six indicators and determine the debt limits for the regions of each cluster. It finds a need to reduce the high debt burden of 46% of the regions belonging to the Northwestern Federal District. Confidence intervals for the debt limit suggest that the negative growth effect of high debt may start from levels of around 5% of the debt-to-GDP ratio and about 43% of the debt-to-revenue ratio. The results indicate that regions with a high level of debt sustainability include St. Petersburg city, the Leningrad region, and the Kaliningrad region. From a state debt policy perspective, the results provide additional arguments for debt reduction for the Republic of Komi, the Republic of Karelia, the Arkhangelsk region, and the Pskov region. The general conclusion of the study boils down to the need to reduce the debt burden of the budgets of some regions of the SFZO, as well as to the need to change the upper limits of debt, which are equally set for all regions by the Budget Code of the Russian Federation, to differentiated values of public domestic debt, taking into account the results obtained in the study.

Suggested Citation

  • Sergey Evgenievich Barykin & Alexey Aleksandrovich Mikheev & Elena Grigorievna Kiseleva & Yuriy Evgenievich Putikhin & Natalia Sergeevna Alekseeva & Alexey Mikhaylov, 2022. "An Empirical Analysis of Russian Regions’ Debt Sustainability," Economies, MDPI, vol. 10(5), pages 1-16, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jecomi:v:10:y:2022:i:5:p:106-:d:807271
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7099/10/5/106/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7099/10/5/106/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Shantanu Ghosh & Tarak Nath Sahu, 2021. "Financial inclusion and economic status of the states of India: An empirical evidence," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 50(2), July.
    2. Nobuo Akai & Yukihiro Nishimura & Masayo Sakata, 2007. "Complementarity, fiscal decentralization and economic growth," Economics of Governance, Springer, vol. 8(4), pages 339-362, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Francisco Molins & Fatmanur Sahin & Miguel Ángel Serrano, 2022. "The Genetics of Risk Aversion: A Systematic Review," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(21), pages 1-22, November.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Pierre Salmon, 2013. "Decentralization and growth: what if the cross-jurisdiction approach had met a dead end?," Constitutional Political Economy, Springer, vol. 24(2), pages 87-107, June.
    2. Philip Bodman & Harry Campbell & Kelly-Ana Heaton & Andrew Hodge, "undated". "Fiscal Decentralisation, Macroeconomic Conditions and Economic Growth in Australia," MRG Discussion Paper Series 2609, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
    3. Juan S. Mora‐Sanguinetti & Rok Spruk, 2023. "Economic effects of recent experiences of federalism: Analysis of the regionalization process in Spain," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 63(1), pages 30-63, January.
    4. Anwar Shah & Theresa Thompson & Heng-fu Zou, 2004. "Decentralising the public sector: The Impact of Decentralisation on Service Delivery, Corruption, Fiscal Management and Growth in Developing and Emerging Market Economies: A Synthesis of Empirical Evi," ifo DICE Report, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 2(1), pages 10-14, October.
    5. Mais Sha'ban & Claudia Girardone & Anna Sarkisyan & Thankom Arun, 2023. "On the relationship between financial inclusion and bank performance," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 52(3), November.
    6. Mitchell, Austin M. & Yin, Weiwen, 2022. "Political centralization, career incentives, and local economic growth in Edo Japan," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    7. Boriss Siliverstovs & Ulrich Thiessen & Caroline Elliott, 2015. "Incentive effects of fiscal federalism: Evidence for France," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(1), pages 1017949-101, December.
    8. Burret, Heiko T. & Feld, Lars P. & Schaltegger, Christoph A., 2022. "Fiscal federalism and economic performance new evidence from Switzerland," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    9. Anwar Shah & Theresa Thompson & Heng-fu Zou, 2004. "Decentralising the public sector: The Impact of Decentralisation on Service Delivery, Corruption, Fiscal Management and Growth in Developing and Emerging Market Economies: A Synthesis of Empirical Evi," ifo DICE Report, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 2(01), pages 10-14, October.
    10. Phil Bodman & Harry Campbell & Thanh Le, "undated". "Public Investment, Taxation, and Growth in Economies with Multi-leveled Governments," MRG Discussion Paper Series 4512, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
    11. Francis Amagoh & Aloysius Ajab Amin, 2012. "An Examination of the Impacts of Fiscal Decentralization on Economic Growth," International Journal of Business Administration, International Journal of Business Administration, Sciedu Press, vol. 3(6), pages 72-81, November.
    12. Zao Sun & Chun-Ping Chang & Yu Hao, 2017. "Fiscal decentralization and China’s provincial economic growth: a panel data analysis for China’s tax sharing system," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 51(5), pages 2267-2289, September.
    13. ESTEBAN, Sonia & DE FRUTOS, Pablo & PRIETO; Maria Jose, 2008. "Fiscal Decentralization And Economic Growth. Empiric Evidence From A Regional Perspective," Regional and Sectoral Economic Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 8(1), pages 29-58.
    14. Ignacio Lozano-Espitia & Juan Manuel Julio-Román, 2015. "Descentralización Fiscal y Crecimiento Económico: Evidencia Regional en Panel de Datos para Colombia," Borradores de Economia 865, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    15. Carlos Usabiaga & E. Macarena Hernández-Salmerón, 2016. "Regional Growth and Convergence in Spain: Is the Decentralization Model Important?," EcoMod2016 9358, EcoMod.
    16. Thushyanthan Baskaran & Lars P. Feld & Jan Schnellenbach, 2016. "Fiscal Federalism, Decentralization, And Economic Growth: A Meta-Analysis," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 54(3), pages 1445-1463, July.
    17. Bodman, Philip & Campbell, Harry & Le, Thanh, 2012. "Public investment, taxation, and long-run output in economies with multi-level governments," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 1603-1611.
    18. Lóránd, Balázs & Horváth, Gyula, 2012. "Decentralizáció és gazdasági fejlődés. Az olasz példa [Decentralization and economic development. The case of Italy]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(12), pages 1273-1298.
    19. Nadiia Matsiuk, 2022. "Thrive, survive, or perish: The impact of regional autonomy on the demographic dynamics of Italian Alpine territories," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 62(5), pages 1512-1558, November.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jecomi:v:10:y:2022:i:5:p:106-:d:807271. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.