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Primary Housing Market: Scenarios for the Development
[Рынок Первичного Жилья: Сценарии Развития Ситуации]

Author

Listed:
  • Ekaterina A. Ponomareva

    (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration)

Abstract

In March-April 2022, the key macroeconomic parameters of the Russian economy changed markedly. TThis affected all industry markets, including the primary housing market. During the coronavirus pandemic, the construction industry was supported by preferential mortgage program. However, current macroeconomic changes suggest a longer and stronger decline in demand for primary housing. In this connection, it is advisable to consider the possibility of an additional reduction of interest rates under the preferential mortgage program down to 9–10% per annum. It is necessary to adjust the parameters of the monitoring of the financial stability of construction companies in order to forecast the probability of their bankruptcy in the next 6–12 months by including in it the assessment of additional financial parameters of developers and parameters of the macroeconomic environment – the ruble exchange rate and the mortgage rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Ekaterina A. Ponomareva, 2022. "Primary Housing Market: Scenarios for the Development [Рынок Первичного Жилья: Сценарии Развития Ситуации]," Russian Economic Development, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, issue 5, pages 34-38, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:gai:recdev:r2243
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    construction industry; primary housing market; new construction; preferential mortgage;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • R32 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Other Spatial Production and Pricing Analysis
    • R38 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Government Policy
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models

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