IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/fru/finjrn/210101p9-27.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Some Macroeconomic Consequences of COVID-19: Specifics of the 2020 World Economic Crisis

Author

Listed:
  • Valery V. Kizilov

    (Financial Research Institute, Moscow 127006, Russian Federation)

Abstract

In 2020, almost all large countries experienced a decline in GDP and other indicators of economic activity. This trend followed the news about the COVID-19 pandemic and had several features typical for cyclical economic crises. At the starting point, both demand and supply factors were negatively affected. This paper looks into data on GDP, retail sales and foreign trade dynamics in the first nine months of 2020, and analyzes the difference between developed and developing countries. Specific phenomena are observed: Germany and its small neighbors had relatively mild crises; developed countries had their trade balances deteriorating; the trade between the USA and China revived; and American deficit has been growing since April 2020. Some hypotheses to explain the above are offered. For instance, the German economy might have been able to adapt swiftly due to greater freedom of entrepreneurship than in France and Italy and due to the lowest debt ratios among G7 countries. The trade balances of developed countries deteriorated, possibly, because of a decline in production as a result of anti-COVID lockdowns, with consumption encouraged by stimulating policy measures.

Suggested Citation

  • Valery V. Kizilov, 2021. "Some Macroeconomic Consequences of COVID-19: Specifics of the 2020 World Economic Crisis," Finansovyj žhurnal — Financial Journal, Financial Research Institute, Moscow 125375, Russia, issue 1, pages 9-27, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:fru:finjrn:210101:p:9-27
    DOI: 10.31107/2075-1990-2021-1-9-27
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.finjournal-nifi.ru/images/FILES/Journal/Archive/2021/1/statii/01_1_2021_v13.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.31107/2075-1990-2021-1-9-27?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivier & Kalemli-Özcan, Sebnem & Penciakova, Veronika & Sander, Nick, 2022. "Estimating SME Failures in Real Time: An Application to the COVID-19 Crisis," CEPR Discussion Papers 15323, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Pragyan Deb & Davide Furceri & Jonathan D. Ostry & Nour Tawk, 2022. "The Economic Effects of COVID-19 Containment Measures," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 33(1), pages 1-32, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Vyacheslav Yu. Dodonov, 2022. "COVID-19 Pandemic as a Factor of Public Debt Increase. The Case of Kazakhstan in the Global Context," Finansovyj žhurnal — Financial Journal, Financial Research Institute, Moscow 125375, Russia, issue 4, pages 92-107, August.
    2. A. A. Zinchenko & S. A. Radionov, 2023. "Analysis of the Effects Produced by Trade Liberalization in the Republic of Uzbekistan and the EAEU," Studies on Russian Economic Development, Springer, vol. 34(1), pages 142-149, February.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lalinsky, Tibor & Pál, Rozália, 2021. "Efficiency and effectiveness of the COVID-19 government support: Evidence from firm-level data," EIB Working Papers 2021/06, European Investment Bank (EIB).
    2. Shun-Yang Lee & Julian Runge & Daniel Yoo & Yakov Bart & Anett Gyurak & J. W. Schneider, 2023. "COVID-19 Demand Shocks Revisited: Did Advertising Technology Help Mitigate Adverse Consequences for Small and Midsize Businesses?," Papers 2307.09035, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2024.
    3. Hugo S. Gonçalves & Sérgio Moro, 2023. "On the economic impacts of COVID‐19: A text mining literature analysis," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(1), pages 375-394, February.
    4. Wang, Wei & Miao, Wei & Liu, Yongdong & Deng, Yiting & Cao, Yunfei, 2022. "The impact of COVID-19 on the ride-sharing industry and its recovery: Causal evidence from China," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 155(C), pages 128-141.
    5. Lalinsky, Tibor & Pál, Rozália, 2022. "Distribution of COVID-19 government support and its consequences for firm liquidity and solvency," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 305-335.
    6. Francesco Ciampi & Alessandro Giannozzi & Giacomo Marzi & Edward I. Altman, 2021. "Rethinking SME default prediction: a systematic literature review and future perspectives," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 126(3), pages 2141-2188, March.
    7. Charlie Tchinda & Marcus Dejardin, 2021. "Are Business Policy Measures in Response to the COVID-19 Pandemic to Be Equally Valued? An Exploration According to SMEs Owners’ Business Expectations," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(21), pages 1-42, October.
    8. Bilbiie, Florin & Melitz, Marc J, 2020. "Aggregate-Demand Amplification of Supply Disruptions: The Entry-Exit Multiplier," CEPR Discussion Papers 15583, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Daniel Rees, 2020. "What Comes Next?," BIS Working Papers 898, Bank for International Settlements.
    10. Nicholas Bloom & Philip Bunn & Paul Mizen & Pawel Smietanka & Gregory Thwaites, 2020. "The Impact of Covid-19 on Productivity," NBER Working Papers 28233, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Rosa Caiazza & Phillip Phan & Erik Lehmann & Henry Etzkowitz, 2021. "An absorptive capacity-based systems view of Covid-19 in the small business economy," International Entrepreneurship and Management Journal, Springer, vol. 17(3), pages 1419-1439, September.
    12. Bas,Maria & Fernandes,Ana Margarida & Paunov,Caroline, 2022. "How Resilient Was Trade to COVID-19 ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9975, The World Bank.
    13. Hoshi, Takeo & Kawaguchi, Daiji & Ueda, Kenichi, 2023. "Zombies, again? The COVID-19 business support programs in Japan," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    14. Lafortune, Jeanne & Pugatch, Todd & Tessada, José & Ubfal, Diego, 2022. "Can interactive online training make high school students more entrepreneurial? Experimental evidence from Rwanda," GLO Discussion Paper Series 1041, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    15. Martina Pilloni & József Kádár & Tareq Abu Hamed, 2022. "The Impact of COVID-19 on Energy Start-Up Companies: The Use of Global Financial Crisis (GFC) as a Lesson for Future Recovery," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(10), pages 1-15, May.
    16. Herrera, Helios & Konradt, Maximilian & Ordoñez, Guillermo & Trebesch, Christoph, 2020. "Corona politics: The cost of mismanaging pandemics," Kiel Working Papers 2165, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    17. Doerr, S. & Erdem, M. & Franco, G. & Gambacorta, L. & Illes, A., 2021. "Technological capacity and firms’ recovery from Covid-19," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 209(C).
    18. Hayakawa, Kazunobu & Keola, Souknilanh & Urata, Shujiro, 2022. "How effective was the restaurant restraining order against COVID-19? A nighttime light study in Japan," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    19. Barbara Kowal & Robert Ranosz & Łukasz Herezy & Wojciech Cichy & Olga Świniarska & Lucia Domaracka, 2022. "Overview of Taken Initiatives and Adaptation Measures in Polish Mining Companies during a Pandemic," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(17), pages 1-20, September.
    20. Mellacher, Patrick, 2020. "COVID-Town: An Integrated Economic-Epidemiological Agent-Based Model," MPRA Paper 103661, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    economic crisis; economic cycle; supply shock; foreign trade; public debt; investment climate; economic freedom; COVID-19;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E65 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fru:finjrn:210101:p:9-27. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Gennady Ageev (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frigvru.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.