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Percentage Errors Can Ruin Your Day (and Rolling the Dice Shows How)

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  • Stephan Kolassa
  • Roland Martin

Abstract

Foresight has printed many articles about the calculation, interpretation, and especially the dangers of percentage error metrics, such as the MAPE. Stephan and Roland now add to the list of dangers, showing how you can be led astray if you use the MAPE to select a best forecasting method or to reward forecast accuracy. Minimizing the MAPE is often not a good idea. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2011

Suggested Citation

  • Stephan Kolassa & Roland Martin, 2011. "Percentage Errors Can Ruin Your Day (and Rolling the Dice Shows How)," Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting, International Institute of Forecasters, issue 23, pages 21-27, Fall.
    • Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2011:i:23:p:21-27
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    Cited by:

    1. Hao, Meiling & Lin, Yunyuan & Zhao, Xingqiu, 2016. "A relative error-based approach for variable selection," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 250-262.
    2. Mayer, Martin János & Yang, Dazhi, 2023. "Calibration of deterministic NWP forecasts and its impact on verification," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 981-991.
    3. Bhatti, Muhammad Tousif & Anwar, Arif A. & Ali Shah, Muhammad Azeem, 2019. "Revisiting telemetry in Pakistan’s Indus Basin Irrigation System," Papers published in Journals (Open Access), International Water Management Institute, pages 11(11):1-20.
    4. Jun Zhang & Bingqing Lin & Yiping Yang, 2022. "Maximum nonparametric kernel likelihood estimation for multiplicative linear regression models," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 63(3), pages 885-918, June.
    5. Jun Zhang, 2021. "Model checking for multiplicative linear regression models with mixed estimators," Statistica Neerlandica, Netherlands Society for Statistics and Operations Research, vol. 75(3), pages 364-403, August.
    6. Kolassa, Stephan, 2016. "Evaluating predictive count data distributions in retail sales forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 788-803.

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