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Is China due for a slowdown?

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  • Israel Malkin
  • Mark M. Spiegel

Abstract

Many analysts have predicted that a Chinese economic slowdown is inevitable because the country is approaching the per capita income at which growth in other countries began to decelerate. However, China may escape such a slowdown because of its uneven development. An analysis based on episodes of rapid expansion in four other Asian countries suggests that growth in China?s more developed provinces may slow to 5.5% by the close of the decade. But growth in the country?s less-developed provinces is expected to run at a robust 7.5% pace.

Suggested Citation

  • Israel Malkin & Mark M. Spiegel, 2012. "Is China due for a slowdown?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue oct15.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfel:y:2012:i:oct15:n:2012-31
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Barry Eichengreen & Donghyun Park & Kwanho Shin, 2012. "When Fast-Growing Economies Slow Down: International Evidence and Implications for China," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 11(1), pages 42-87, Winter/Sp.
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    Keywords

    Economic conditions - China;

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