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The Disappointing Recovery in U.S. Output after 2009

Author

Listed:
  • John G. Fernald
  • Robert E. Hall
  • James H. Stock
  • Mark W. Watson

Abstract

U.S. output has expanded only slowly since the recession trough in 2009, counter to normal expectations of a rapid cyclical recovery. Removing cyclical effects reveals that the deep recession was superimposed on a sharply slowing trend in underlying growth. The slowing trend reflects two factors: slow growth of innovation and declining labor force participation. Both of these powerful adverse forces were in place before the recession and, thus, were not the result of the financial crisis or policy changes since 2009.

Suggested Citation

  • John G. Fernald & Robert E. Hall & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2018. "The Disappointing Recovery in U.S. Output after 2009," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfel:00155
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. David M. Byrne & John G. Fernald & Marshall B. Reinsdorf, 2016. "Does the United States Have a Productivity Slowdown or a Measurement Problem?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 47(1 (Spring), pages 109-182.
    2. Rhys M. Bidder & Tim Mahedy & Robert G. Valletta, 2016. "Trend Job Growth: Where's Normal?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
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