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The recovery’s final frontier?

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Abstract

The U.S. economy is looking quite good. Growth is on a solid trajectory, and the FOMC?s maximum employment goal is in sight. Risks from abroad are unlikely to overturn strong U.S. fundamentals. Still, the exact timing of an initial interest rate increase will depend on convincing evidence that inflation is heading back toward target. The following is adapted from a presentation by the president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco to the International Conference of Commercial Bank Economists in Los Angeles on July 8.

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  • John C. Williams, 2015. "The recovery’s final frontier?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfel:00063
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    1. Aruoba, S. Borağan & Diebold, Francis X. & Nalewaik, Jeremy & Schorfheide, Frank & Song, Dongho, 2016. "Improving GDP measurement: A measurement-error perspective," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 191(2), pages 384-397.
    2. Mary C. Daly & Bart Hobijn, 2014. "Downward Nominal Wage Rigidities Bend the Phillips Curve," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 46(S2), pages 51-93, October.
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    4. Mary C. Daly & Bart Hobijn, 2015. "Why is wage growth so slow?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    5. Milton Friedman, 1961. "The Lag in Effect of Monetary Policy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 69(5), pages 447-447.
    6. Robert G. Valletta & Catherine van der List, 2015. "Involuntary part-time work: here to stay?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    7. Charles E. Gilbert & Norman J. Morin & Andrew D. Paciorek & Claudia R. Sahm, 2015. "Residual Seasonality in GDP," FEDS Notes 2015-05-14, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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    9. Tim Mahedy & Glenn D. Rudebusch & Daniel J. Wilson, 2015. "The puzzle of weak first-quarter GDP growth," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    10. Fernanda Nechio, 2015. "Have long-term inflation expectations declined?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    11. John C. Williams, 2015. "Looking forward, forward looking: the path for monetary policy," Speech 138, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
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