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The role of expectations and output in the inflation process: an empirical assessment

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Author Info

  • Jeffrey C. Fuhrer
  • Giovanni P. Olivei

Abstract

This brief examines two issues of current interest concerning inflation: (1) whether "well-anchored" expectations will help to restrain inflation's decline and whether an "un-anchoring" of expectations could lead to undesirably high inflation and (2) to what extent output (or utilization) gaps are useful components of empirical models of inflation and, if they are useful, to what extent current gaps might counterbalance the effect of expectations on inflation. The goals of conducting this examination are to articulate a reasonably coherent framework for the discussion, highlight the key areas of uncertainty, and provide new empirical evidence that sheds some light on these areas.

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File URL: http://www.bostonfed.org/economic/ppb/2010/ppb102.pdf
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File URL: http://www.bostonfed.org/economic/ppb/2010/ppb102.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Boston in its journal Public Policy Brief.

Volume (Year): (2010)
Issue (Month): ()
Pages:

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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedbpb:y:2010:n:10-2

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Related research

Keywords: Inflation (Finance);

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Cited by:
  1. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2010. "Modeling Inflation After the Crisis," NBER Working Papers 16488, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Sandeep Mazumder & Laurence M. Ball, 2011. "Inflation Dynamics and the Great Recession," IMF Working Papers 11/121, International Monetary Fund.
  3. Barnes, Michelle L. & Gumbau-Brisa, FabiĆ  & Lie, Denny & Olivei, Giovanni P., 2011. "Estimation of Forward-Looking Relationships in Closed Form: An Application to the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Working Papers 2011-05, University of Sydney, School of Economics.
  4. Michael Dotsey & Shigeru Fujita & Tom Stark, 2011. "Do Phillips curves conditionally help to forecast inflation?," Working Papers 11-40, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

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