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Do expectations and decisions respond to monetary policy?

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  • Luba Petersen

Abstract

Purpose - – The purpose of this paper is to explore the ability of monetary policy to generate real effects in laboratory general equilibrium production economies. Design/methodology/approach - – To understand why monetary policy is not consistently effective at stabilizing economic activity, the author vary the types of agents interacting in the economy and consider treatments where subjects are playing the role of households (firms) in an economy where automated firms (households) are programmed to behave rationally. Findings - – While the majority of participants’ expectations respond to monetary policy in the direction intended, subjects do form expectations adaptively, relying heavily on past variables and forecasts in forming two-steps-ahead forecasts. Moreover, in the presence of counterparts that are boundedly rational, forecast accuracy worsens significantly. When interacting with automated households, updating firms’ prices respond modestly to monetary policy and significantly to anticipated marginal costs and future prices. The greatest deviations in behavior from theoretical predictions arise from human households (HH). Households persistent oversupply of labor and under-consumption is attributed to precautionary saving and debt aversion. The results provide evidence that the effects of monetary policy on decision making hinge on the distribution of indebtedness of households. Originality/value - – The author present causal evidence of the effects of potential bounded rationality on agents’ consumption and labor decisions.

Suggested Citation

  • Luba Petersen, 2015. "Do expectations and decisions respond to monetary policy?," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 42(6), pages 972-1004, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:eme:jespps:v:42:y:2015:i:6:p:972-1004
    DOI: 10.1108/JES-08-2015-0149
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Fenig, Guidon & Mileva, Mariya & Petersen, Luba, 2018. "Deflating asset price bubbles with leverage constraints and monetary policy," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 155(C), pages 1-27.
    2. Cornand, Camille & Hubert, Paul, 2020. "On the external validity of experimental inflation forecasts: A comparison with five categories of field expectations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    3. Camille Cornand & Paul Hubert, 2020. "On the external validity of experimental inflation forecasts," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-02894262, HAL.
    4. John Duffy & Daniela Puzzello, 2019. "The Friedman Rule in the Laboratory," 2019 Meeting Papers 541, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    5. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/7t8isspkbs8hk8kol9kk9sjdl6 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Marcus Giamattei, 2022. "Can Cold Turkey Reduce Inflation Inertia? Evidence on Disinflation and Level‐k Thinking from a Laboratory Experiment," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 54(8), pages 2477-2517, December.
    7. John Duffy & Daniela Puzzello, 2022. "The Friedman Rule: Experimental Evidence," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 63(2), pages 671-698, May.
    8. Orland, Andreas & Roos, Michael W.M., 2019. "Price-setting with quadratic adjustment costs: Experimental evidence," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 88-116.
    9. Kryvtsov, Oleksiy & Petersen, Luba, 2021. "Central bank communication that works: Lessons from lab experiments," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 760-780.
    10. Luba Petersen & Guidon Fenig, 2015. "Distributing scarce jobs and output: Experimental evidence on the effects of rationing," Discussion Papers dp15-02, Department of Economics, Simon Fraser University.
    11. Ina Hajdini, 2022. "Mis-specified Forecasts and Myopia in an Estimated New Keynesian Model," Working Papers 22-03R, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, revised 06 Mar 2023.
    12. Zhou Lu & Te Bao & Xiaohua Yu, 2021. "Gender and Bubbles in Experimental Markets with Positive and Negative Expectation Feedback," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 57(4), pages 1307-1326, April.
    13. Mauersberger, Felix, 2021. "Monetary policy rules in a non-rational world: A macroeconomic experiment," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 197(C).
    14. Guidon Fenig & Mariya Mileva & Luba Petersen, 2013. "Leave the bubble alone!: Deflating asset price bubbles in an experimental macroeconomy," Discussion Papers dp16-10, Department of Economics, Simon Fraser University, revised Aug 2016.

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