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New Season New Hopes: Off-Season Optimism

Author

Listed:
  • Oguz Ersan

    (Istanbul Technical University (ITU), Turkey)

  • Ender Demir

    (Istanbul Medeniyet University, Turkey)

Abstract

While literature on the relation between on-field sports performance and stock returns is ample, there is very limited evidence on off-season stage. Constituting around 3 months, off-seasons do not only occupy a significant part of the year but also represent totally different characteristics than on-seasons. They lack the periodic, unambiguous news events in on-seasons (match results), instead they are associated with highly uncertain transfer news and rumors. We show that this distinction has several impacts on the stock market performances of soccer clubs. Most notably, off-seasons generate substantially higher (excess) returns. After controlling for other variables, the estimated effect of off-season periods is as high as 38.75%, annually. In line with several seminal studies, we link this fact to increased optimism and betting behavior through uncertain periods; and periods prior to the start of a new calendar (in our case, new season). For all of the examined 7 clubs (3 from Italy and 4 from Turkey), mean excess returns over the market are positive (negative) in off-seasons (on-seasons). On-seasons are associated with increased trading activity due to more frequent news. Stocks of Italian clubs are evidently more volatile through off-seasons while volatility results for the stocks of Turkish clubs are not consistent.

Suggested Citation

  • Oguz Ersan & Ender Demir, 2017. "New Season New Hopes: Off-Season Optimism," Eurasian Journal of Economics and Finance, Eurasian Publications, vol. 5(4), pages 36-49.
    • Handle: RePEc:ejn:ejefjr:v:5:y:2017:i:4:p:36-49
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    References listed on IDEAS

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