IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/trapol/v118y2022icp91-100.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Measuring the impact of an exogenous factor: An exponential smoothing model of the response of shipping to COVID-19

Author

Listed:
  • Zhao, Hong-Mei
  • He, Hong-Di
  • Lu, Kai-Fa
  • Han, Xiao-Long
  • Ding, Yi
  • Peng, Zhong-Ren

Abstract

Following the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, various lockdown strategies restrained global economic growth bringing a significant decline in maritime transportation. However, the previous studies have not adequately recognized the specific impacts of COVID-19 on maritime transportation. In this study, a series of analyses of the Baltic Dry Index (BDI), the China Coastal Bulk Freight Index (CCBFI) and of container throughputs with and without the impact of COVID-19 were carried out to assess changing trends in dry bulk and container transportation. The results show that global dry bulk transportation was largely affected by lockdown policies in the second month during COVID-19, and BDI presented a year-on-year decrease of approximately 35.5% from 2019 to 2020. The CCBFI showed an upward trend in the second month during COVID-19, one month ahead of the BDI. The container throughputs at Shanghai Port, the Ports of Hong Kong, the Ports of Singapore and the Ports of Los Angeles from 2019 to 2020 presented the largest year-on-year drops of approximately 19.6%, 7.1%, 10.6% and 30.9%, respectively. In addition, the authors developed exponential smoothing models of BDI, CCBFI, and container transportation, and calculated the percentage prediction error between the observed and predicted values to examine the impact of exogenous effects on the shipping industry due to the outbreak of COVID-19. The results are consistent with the conclusions obtained from the comparison of BDI, CCBFI, and container transportation during the same period in 2020 and 2019. Finally, on the basis of the findings, smart shipping and special support policies are proposed to reduce the negative impacts of COVID-19.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhao, Hong-Mei & He, Hong-Di & Lu, Kai-Fa & Han, Xiao-Long & Ding, Yi & Peng, Zhong-Ren, 2022. "Measuring the impact of an exogenous factor: An exponential smoothing model of the response of shipping to COVID-19," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 91-100.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:trapol:v:118:y:2022:i:c:p:91-100
    DOI: 10.1016/j.tranpol.2022.01.015
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0967070X2200021X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.tranpol.2022.01.015?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Papapostolou, Nikos C. & Pouliasis, Panos K. & Nomikos, Nikos K. & Kyriakou, Ioannis, 2016. "Shipping investor sentiment and international stock return predictability," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 81-94.
    2. Park, Heungsun & Stefanski, L. A., 1998. "Relative-error prediction," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 227-236, October.
    3. Warwick McKibbin & Roshen Fernando, 2021. "The Global Macroeconomic Impacts of COVID-19: Seven Scenarios," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 20(2), pages 1-30, Summer.
    4. Zhang, X. & Chen, M.Y. & Wang, M.G. & Ge, Y.E. & Stanley, H.E., 2019. "A novel hybrid approach to Baltic Dry Index forecasting based on a combined dynamic fluctuation network and artificial intelligence method," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 361(C), pages 499-516.
    5. Yasmine Rashed & Hilde Meersman & Eddy Van de Voorde & Thierry Vanelslander, 2017. "Short-term forecast of container throughout: An ARIMA-intervention model for the port of Antwerp," Maritime Economics & Logistics, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association of Maritime Economists (IAME), vol. 19(4), pages 749-764, December.
    6. Jun-Woo Jeon & Okan Duru & Gi-Tae Yeo, 2020. "Modelling cyclic container freight index using system dynamics," Maritime Policy & Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(3), pages 287-303, April.
    7. Narasimha, Prathvi Thumbe & Jena, Pradyot Ranjan & Majhi, Ritanjali, 2021. "Impact of COVID-19 on the Indian seaport transportation and maritime supply chain," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 191-203.
    8. Kaan Koyuncu & Leyla Tavacioğlu & Neslihan Gökmen & Umut Çelen Arican, 2021. "Forecasting COVID-19 impact on RWI/ISL container throughput index by using SARIMA models," Maritime Policy & Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(8), pages 1096-1108, November.
    9. Lin, Arthur J. & Chang, Hai Yen & Hsiao, Jung Lieh, 2019. "Does the Baltic Dry Index drive volatility spillovers in the commodities, currency, or stock markets?," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 265-283.
    10. Rothengatter, Werner & Zhang, Junyi & Hayashi, Yoshitsugu & Nosach, Anastasiia & Wang, Kun & Oum, Tae Hoon, 2021. "Pandemic waves and the time after Covid-19 – Consequences for the transport sector," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 225-237.
    11. Kevin Cullinane & Hercules Haralambides, 2021. "Global trends in maritime and port economics: the COVID-19 pandemic and beyond," Maritime Economics & Logistics, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association of Maritime Economists (IAME), vol. 23(3), pages 369-380, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Melike Bildirici & Işıl Şahin Onat & Özgür Ömer Ersin, 2023. "Forecasting BDI Sea Freight Shipment Cost, VIX Investor Sentiment and MSCI Global Stock Market Indicator Indices: LSTAR-GARCH and LSTAR-APGARCH Models," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-27, March.
    2. Yang, Yang & Liu, Qing & Chang, Chia-Hsun, 2023. "China-Europe freight transportation under the first wave of COVID-19 pandemic and government restriction measures," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
    3. Huang, Dong & Grifoll, Manel & Sanchez-Espigares, Jose A. & Zheng, Pengjun & Feng, Hongxiang, 2022. "Hybrid approaches for container traffic forecasting in the context of anomalous events: The case of the Yangtze River Delta region in the COVID-19 pandemic," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 1-12.
    4. Sakawa, Hideaki & Watanabel, Naoki, 2023. "The impact of the COVID-19 outbreak on Japanese shipping industry: An event study approach," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 130-140.
    5. Zhao, Chuan & Li, Xin & Zuo, Min & Mo, Lipo & Yang, Changchun, 2022. "Spatiotemporal dynamic network for regional maritime vessel flow prediction amid COVID-19," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 78-89.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Yang, Yang & Liu, Qing & Chang, Chia-Hsun, 2023. "China-Europe freight transportation under the first wave of COVID-19 pandemic and government restriction measures," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
    2. Anqiang Huang & Xinjun Liu & Changrui Rao & Yi Zhang & Yifan He, 2022. "A New Container Throughput Forecasting Paradigm under COVID-19," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(5), pages 1-20, March.
    3. Gong, Yuting & Li, Kevin X. & Chen, Shu-Ling & Shi, Wenming, 2020. "Contagion risk between the shipping freight and stock markets: Evidence from the recent US-China trade war," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    4. Huang, Dong & Grifoll, Manel & Sanchez-Espigares, Jose A. & Zheng, Pengjun & Feng, Hongxiang, 2022. "Hybrid approaches for container traffic forecasting in the context of anomalous events: The case of the Yangtze River Delta region in the COVID-19 pandemic," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 1-12.
    5. Zhao, Chuan & Li, Xin & Zuo, Min & Mo, Lipo & Yang, Changchun, 2022. "Spatiotemporal dynamic network for regional maritime vessel flow prediction amid COVID-19," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 78-89.
    6. Liu, Jiaguo & Zhao, Aixiang & Kong, Yudan & Wang, Junjin, 2022. "Optimal subsidy policies of the Chinese cruise market under the impact of COVID-19," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 280-291.
    7. Ahmed Karam & Abdelrahman E. E. Eltoukhy & Ibrahim Abdelfadeel Shaban & El-Awady Attia, 2022. "A Review of COVID-19-Related Literature on Freight Transport: Impacts, Mitigation Strategies, Recovery Measures, and Future Research Directions," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(19), pages 1-27, September.
    8. Melike Bildirici & Işıl Şahin Onat & Özgür Ömer Ersin, 2023. "Forecasting BDI Sea Freight Shipment Cost, VIX Investor Sentiment and MSCI Global Stock Market Indicator Indices: LSTAR-GARCH and LSTAR-APGARCH Models," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-27, March.
    9. A. G. Aganbegyan & A. N. Klepach & B. N. Porfiryev & M. N. Uzyakov & A. A. Shirov, 2020. "Post-Pandemic Recovery: The Russian Economy and the Transition to Sustainable Social and Economic Development," Studies on Russian Economic Development, Springer, vol. 31(6), pages 599-605, November.
    10. Piotr Sorokowski & Agata Groyecka & Marta Kowal & Agnieszka Sorokowska & Michał Białek & Izabela Lebuda & Małgorzata Dobrowolska & Przemysław Zdybek & Maciej Karwowski, 2020. "Can Information about Pandemics Increase Negative Attitudes toward Foreign Groups? A Case of COVID-19 Outbreak," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(12), pages 1-10, June.
    11. Rubén Muñoz Pavón & Antonio A. Arcos Alvarez & Marcos G. Alberti, 2020. "Possibilities of BIM-FM for the Management of COVID in Public Buildings," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(23), pages 1-21, November.
    12. Akhtaruzzaman, Md & Boubaker, Sabri & Sensoy, Ahmet, 2021. "Financial contagion during COVID–19 crisis," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 38(C).
    13. Claudia Salceanu & Mariana Floricica Calin, 2022. "The Pandemic Context and Quality of Life for Youth in Constanta County," Technium Social Sciences Journal, Technium Science, vol. 27(1), pages 687-696, January.
    14. Yanguas Parra, Paola & Hauenstein, Christian & Oei, Pao-Yu, 2021. "The death valley of coal – Modelling COVID-19 recovery scenarios for steam coal markets," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 288(C).
    15. Di Bartolomeo, Giovanni & D'Imperio, Paolo & Felici, Francesco, 2022. "The fiscal response to the Italian COVID-19 crisis: A counterfactual analysis," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    16. Brum, Matias & De Rosa, Mauricio, 2021. "Too little but not too late: nowcasting poverty and cash transfers’ incidence during COVID-19’s crisis," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    17. Oleksiuk Adam & Pleśniak Agnieszka, 2022. "Environment Characteristics and Internationalization of SMEs: Insights from a Polish and Finnish Sample," Journal of Management and Business Administration. Central Europe, Sciendo, vol. 30(3), pages 175-194, September.
    18. Matías Brum & Mauricio de Rosa, 2020. "Too little but not too late. Nowcasting poverty and cash transfers' incidence in Uruguay during COVID-19's crisis," Documentos de Trabajo (working papers) 20-09, Instituto de Economía - IECON.
    19. James Chapman & Ajit Desai, 2021. "Using Payments Data to Nowcast Macroeconomic Variables During the Onset of COVID-19," Staff Working Papers 21-2, Bank of Canada.
    20. Emmanuel Apergis & Nicholas Apergis, 2021. "The impact of COVID-19 on economic growth: evidence from a Bayesian Panel Vector Autoregressive (BPVAR) model," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(58), pages 6739-6751, December.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:trapol:v:118:y:2022:i:c:p:91-100. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/30473/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.