Stochastic modeling and real-time prediction of vehicular lane-changing behavior

Time-varying lane-changing fractions and queue lengths are important lane traffic characteristics which may exhibit significant changes in the presence of a lane-blocking incident. This paper describes a stochastic system modeling approach to estimate time-varying lane-changing fractions and queue lengths for real-time incident management on surface streets. A discrete-time nonlinear stochastic model, which consists of recursive equations, measurement equations, and boundary constraints, is proposed to characterize inter-lane and intra-lane traffic state variables during incidents. To estimate lane-changing fractions and other state variables of the model, a recursive estimation algorithm is developed which primarily involves an extended Kalman filter, truncation, normalization, and a queue-updating procedure. Lane traffic counts are the sole input data used in this method. These data can be readily collected from conventional point detectors. The proposed model was calibrated using video-based data, then tested using simulated data from the TRAF-NETSIM simulation model, Version 5.0, as well as real video-based data sets. Preliminary test results indicate the feasibility of employing the proposed approach to estimate time-varying mandatory lane-changing fractions as well as queue lengths during incidents. The estimated lane-changing fractions and queue lengths can be used not only in better understanding the phenomena of incident-related inter-lane and intra-lane traffic characteristics, but also in developing real-time incident management technologies. Moreover, it is hoped that the results of this study might contribute to future research in related areas such as incident traffic prediction, incident-responsive traffic control and management, and automatic road congestion warning systems for further use in advanced transportation management and information systems.