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A two-sex renewal model and its population projection

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  • Li, Nan

Abstract

Population projections rely on one-sex renewal models. Consequently, changing the projection of male mortality does not affect the projection of birth, contradicting commonsense. A two-sex renewal model is presented in this paper to provide a better description of reproduction and more reasonable population projections. This model is nonlinear and includes the one-sex renewal models as special cases. In this model, age-specific birth rates are defined for two sexes jointly; total fertility, net reproduction rate, and intrinsic growth rate are also derived for two sexes jointly; and age-specific populations approach or converge to stable status. Applying the two-sex renewal model to Australia, it indicates that one-sex models underestimated the intrinsic growth rate by 14 percent. Compared to the results of one-sex models, the two-sex model would provide higher growth rate for low-fertility countries, and lower growth rate for high-fertility countries. In other words, the one-sex models are commonly biased. If the two-sex model is applied to all the countries, it would project smaller populations for the world in the future.

Suggested Citation

  • Li, Nan, 2022. "A two-sex renewal model and its population projection," Theoretical Population Biology, Elsevier, vol. 143(C), pages 46-51.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:thpobi:v:143:y:2022:i:c:p:46-51
    DOI: 10.1016/j.tpb.2021.11.001
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Matthews, A.P. & Garenne, M.L., 2013. "A dynamic model of the marriage market—Part 2: Simulation of marital states and application to empirical data," Theoretical Population Biology, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 86-93.
    2. Robert Pollak, 1986. "A reformulation of the two-sex problem," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 23(2), pages 247-259, May.
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