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Adaptive foresight modular design and dynamic adjustment mechanism: Framework and Taiwan case study

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  • Lin, Hao-Chu
  • Luarn, Pin
  • Maa, Ren-Horng
  • Chen, Chao-Wen

Abstract

In response to future external environmental challenges and to foster a consensus on national development, over the past 30years developed and developing countries have endeavored to set a national direction for development and allocation of R&D resources through a standardized operational model on foresight projects. However, major national foresight programmes that have a 4–5year cycle have encountered many challenges. These challenges include prolonged planning time, resulting in not keeping pace with the ever-changing environment, massive resource investment unsuitable for countries with limited resources, and bottlenecks such as inoperability of the planning processes connected to follow-up project promotion. In this article, we propose a dynamic modular design perspective to overcome such difficulties and demonstrate the process and achievements of foresight planning using the Taiwan Industry and Advanced Technology Research Project as an example. Our research results can serve as a reference in national technology foresight planning for developing countries with limited resources in the rapidly changing technology development environment.

Suggested Citation

  • Lin, Hao-Chu & Luarn, Pin & Maa, Ren-Horng & Chen, Chao-Wen, 2012. "Adaptive foresight modular design and dynamic adjustment mechanism: Framework and Taiwan case study," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 79(9), pages 1583-1591.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:79:y:2012:i:9:p:1583-1591
    DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2012.06.010
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Kerstin Cuhls, 2003. "From forecasting to foresight processes-new participative foresight activities in Germany," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(2-3), pages 93-111.
    2. Antoine Schoen & T. Könnölä & P. Warnke & R. Barre & S. Kuhlmann, 2011. "Tailoring Foresight to field specificities," Post-Print hal-00645795, HAL.
    3. Joseph Coates & Philippe Durance & Michel Godet, 2010. "Strategic Foresight Issue," Post-Print hal-02864607, HAL.
    4. Attila Havas, 2003. "Evolving foresight in a small transition economy," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(2-3), pages 179-201.
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    Cited by:

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