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Analysis of factors influencing the development of transport infrastructure until the year 2030 — A Delphi based scenario study

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  • Schuckmann, Steffen W.
  • Gnatzy, Tobias
  • Darkow, Inga-Lena
  • von der Gracht, Heiko A.

Abstract

In this paper, we present the findings of a web-based real-time Delphi study concerning the factors which will influence the future development of the transport infrastructure until the year 2030. Intensifying globalization, increased urbanization, ongoing shortages in public finances, and the requirements of a more demanding and growing world population are some of the challenges, which global transport will face. This research identifies, assesses, and integrates long-range developments of various factors, such as supply and demand, financing, competitiveness, and sustainability, which will affect the future of the transport industry and its infrastructure. Results are presented in a final probable scenario, which is divided into four different scenario aspects. Moreover, managerial and governmental implications for strategy and policy development are discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • Schuckmann, Steffen W. & Gnatzy, Tobias & Darkow, Inga-Lena & von der Gracht, Heiko A., 2012. "Analysis of factors influencing the development of transport infrastructure until the year 2030 — A Delphi based scenario study," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 79(8), pages 1373-1387.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:79:y:2012:i:8:p:1373-1387
    DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2012.05.008
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    Cited by:

    1. Bokrantz, Jon & Skoogh, Anders & Berlin, Cecilia & Stahre, Johan, 2017. "Maintenance in digitalised manufacturing: Delphi-based scenarios for 2030," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 191(C), pages 154-169.
    2. Carlucci, Fabio & Cirà, Andrea & Ioppolo, Giuseppe & Massari, Stefania & Siviero, Lucio, 2018. "Logistics and land use planning: An application of the ACIT indicator in European port regions," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 60-69.
    3. Guillermo Ivan Pereira & Patrícia Pereira Silva & Deborah Soule, 2018. "Policy-adaptation for a smarter and more sustainable EU electricity distribution industry: a foresight analysis," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 20(1), pages 231-267, December.
    4. Shankar, Ravi & Pathak, Devendra Kumar & Choudhary, Devendra, 2019. "Decarbonizing freight transportation: An integrated EFA-TISM approach to model enablers of dedicated freight corridors," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 143(C), pages 85-100.
    5. Merfeld, Katrin & Wilhelms, Mark-Philipp & Henkel, Sven & Kreutzer, Karin, 2019. "Carsharing with shared autonomous vehicles: Uncovering drivers, barriers and future developments – A four-stage Delphi study," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 144(C), pages 66-81.
    6. Ülengin, Füsun & Işık, Mine & Ekici, Şule Önsel & Özaydın, Özay & Kabak, Özgür & Topçu, Y. İlker, 2018. "Policy developments for the reduction of climate change impacts by the transportation sector," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 36-50.
    7. Roßmann, Bernhard & Canzaniello, Angelo & von der Gracht, Heiko & Hartmann, Evi, 2018. "The future and social impact of Big Data Analytics in Supply Chain Management: Results from a Delphi study," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 135-149.
    8. Kluge, Ulrike & Ringbeck, Jürgen & Spinler, Stefan, 2020. "Door-to-door travel in 2035 – A Delphi study," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    9. Tiberius, Victor & Gojowy, Robin & Dabić, Marina, 2022. "Forecasting the future of robo advisory: A three-stage Delphi study on economic, technological, and societal implications," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 182(C).
    10. Soria-Lara, Julio A. & Ariza-Álvarez, Amor & Aguilera-Benavente, Francisco & Cascajo, Rocío & Arce-Ruiz, Rosa M. & López, Cristina & Gómez-Delgado, Montserrat, 2021. "Participatory visioning for building disruptive future scenarios for transport and land use planning," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    11. Saba, Charles Shaaba, 2021. "Convergence and transition paths in transportation: Fresh insights from a club clustering algorithm," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 80-93.
    12. Ghazy, Shams & Tang, Yu Hoe & Mugumya, Kevin Luwemba & Wong, Jing Ying & Chan, Andy, 2022. "Future-proofing Klang Valley’s veins with REBET: A framework for directing transportation technologies towards infrastructure resilience," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 180(C).
    13. Melander, Lisa & Dubois, Anna & Hedvall, Klas & Lind, Frida, 2019. "Future goods transport in Sweden 2050: Using a Delphi-based scenario analysis," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 178-189.
    14. Fritschy, Carolin & Spinler, Stefan, 2019. "The impact of autonomous trucks on business models in the automotive and logistics industry–a Delphi-based scenario study," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    15. Acheampong, Ransford A. & Legacy, Crystal & Kingston, Richard & Stone, John, 2023. "Imagining urban mobility futures in the era of autonomous vehicles—insights from participatory visioning and multi-criteria appraisal in the UK and Australia," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 136(C), pages 193-208.
    16. Esmaeilpoorarabi, Niusha & Yigitcanlar, Tan & Guaralda, Mirko & Kamruzzaman, Md., 2018. "Evaluating place quality in innovation districts: A Delphic hierarchy process approach," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 471-486.
    17. Frevel, Nicolas & Beiderbeck, Daniel & Schmidt, Sascha L., 2022. "The impact of technology on sports – A prospective study," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 182(C).
    18. Peppel, Marcel & Ringbeck, Jürgen & Spinler, Stefan, 2022. "How will last-mile delivery be shaped in 2040? A Delphi-based scenario study," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 177(C).
    19. Salcedo-Sanz, S. & Cuadra, L. & Alexandre-Cortizo, E. & Jiménez-Fernández, S. & Portilla-Figueras, A., 2014. "Soft-Computing: An innovative technological solution for urban traffic-related problems in modern cities," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 236-244.
    20. Kabak, Özgür & Ülengin, Füsun & Önsel Ekici, Şule, 2018. "Connecting logistics performance to export: A scenario-based approach," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 69-82.

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