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Change-point inference on volatility in noisy Itô semimartingales

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  • Bibinger, Markus
  • Madensoy, Mehmet

Abstract

This work is concerned with tests on structural breaks in the spot volatility process of a general Itô semimartingale based on discrete observations contaminated with i.i.d.microstructure noise. We construct a consistent test building up on infill asymptotic results for certain functionals of spectral spot volatility estimates. A weak limit theorem is established under the null hypothesis relying on extreme value theory. We prove consistency of the test and of an associated estimator for the change point. A simulation study illustrates the finite-sample performance of the method and efficiency gains compared to a skip-sampling approach.

Suggested Citation

  • Bibinger, Markus & Madensoy, Mehmet, 2019. "Change-point inference on volatility in noisy Itô semimartingales," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 129(12), pages 4878-4925.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:spapps:v:129:y:2019:i:12:p:4878-4925
    DOI: 10.1016/j.spa.2018.12.013
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Markus Bibinger & Nikolaus Hautsch & Peter Malec & Markus Reiss, 2019. "Estimating the Spot Covariation of Asset Prices—Statistical Theory and Empirical Evidence," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(3), pages 419-435, July.
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    3. Zhang, Lan & Mykland, Per A. & Ait-Sahalia, Yacine, 2005. "A Tale of Two Time Scales: Determining Integrated Volatility With Noisy High-Frequency Data," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 100, pages 1394-1411, December.
    4. Yacine Aït-Sahalia & Jean Jacod, 2014. "High-Frequency Financial Econometrics," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 10261.
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    7. Suzanne S. Lee & Per A. Mykland, 2008. "Jumps in Financial Markets: A New Nonparametric Test and Jump Dynamics," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(6), pages 2535-2563, November.
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    11. Altmeyer, Randolf & Bibinger, Markus, 2015. "Functional stable limit theorems for quasi-efficient spectral covolatility estimators," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 125(12), pages 4556-4600.
    12. Jean Jacod & Viktor Todorov, 2010. "Do price and volatility jump together?," Papers 1010.4990, arXiv.org.
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    Cited by:

    1. Bibinger, Markus, 2020. "Cusum tests for changes in the Hurst exponent and volatility of fractional Brownian motion," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).

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