IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/spapps/v127y2017i5p1417-1440.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Multilevel sequential Monte Carlo samplers

Author

Listed:
  • Beskos, Alexandros
  • Jasra, Ajay
  • Law, Kody
  • Tempone, Raul
  • Zhou, Yan

Abstract

In this article we consider the approximation of expectations w.r.t. probability distributions associated to the solution of partial differential equations (PDEs); this scenario appears routinely in Bayesian inverse problems. In practice, one often has to solve the associated PDE numerically, using, for instance finite element methods which depend on the step-size level hL. In addition, the expectation cannot be computed analytically and one often resorts to Monte Carlo methods. In the context of this problem, it is known that the introduction of the multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) method can reduce the amount of computational effort to estimate expectations, for a given level of error. This is achieved via a telescoping identity associated to a Monte Carlo approximation of a sequence of probability distributions with discretization levels ∞>h0>h1⋯>hL. In many practical problems of interest, one cannot achieve an i.i.d. sampling of the associated sequence and a sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) version of the MLMC method is introduced to deal with this problem. It is shown that under appropriate assumptions, the attractive property of a reduction of the amount of computational effort to estimate expectations, for a given level of error, can be maintained within the SMC context. That is, relative to exact sampling and Monte Carlo for the distribution at the finest level hL. The approach is numerically illustrated on a Bayesian inverse problem.

Suggested Citation

  • Beskos, Alexandros & Jasra, Ajay & Law, Kody & Tempone, Raul & Zhou, Yan, 2017. "Multilevel sequential Monte Carlo samplers," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 127(5), pages 1417-1440.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:spapps:v:127:y:2017:i:5:p:1417-1440
    DOI: 10.1016/j.spa.2016.08.004
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304414916301326
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.spa.2016.08.004?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Pierre Del Moral & Arnaud Doucet & Ajay Jasra, 2006. "Sequential Monte Carlo samplers," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 68(3), pages 411-436, June.
    2. James Martin & Ajay Jasra & Emma McCoy, 2013. "Inference for a class of partially observed point process models," Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Springer;The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, vol. 65(3), pages 413-437, June.
    3. Michael B. Giles, 2008. "Multilevel Monte Carlo Path Simulation," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 56(3), pages 607-617, June.
    4. Chang-Han Rhee & Peter W. Glynn, 2015. "Unbiased Estimation with Square Root Convergence for SDE Models," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 63(5), pages 1026-1043, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Pierre E. Jacob & John O’Leary & Yves F. Atchadé, 2020. "Unbiased Markov chain Monte Carlo methods with couplings," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 82(3), pages 543-600, July.
    2. Ajay Jasra & Kody Law & Carina Suciu, 2020. "Advanced Multilevel Monte Carlo Methods," International Statistical Review, International Statistical Institute, vol. 88(3), pages 548-579, December.
    3. Millar, Robert & Li, Hui & Li, Jinglai, 2023. "Multicanonical sequential Monte Carlo sampler for uncertainty quantification," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 237(C).
    4. Warne, David J. & Baker, Ruth E. & Simpson, Matthew J., 2018. "Multilevel rejection sampling for approximate Bayesian computation," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 71-86.
    5. Hai‐Dang Dau & Nicolas Chopin, 2022. "Waste‐free sequential Monte Carlo," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 84(1), pages 114-148, February.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Matti Vihola & Jouni Helske & Jordan Franks, 2020. "Importance sampling type estimators based on approximate marginal Markov chain Monte Carlo," Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, Danish Society for Theoretical Statistics;Finnish Statistical Society;Norwegian Statistical Association;Swedish Statistical Association, vol. 47(4), pages 1339-1376, December.
    2. Pierre E. Jacob & John O’Leary & Yves F. Atchadé, 2020. "Unbiased Markov chain Monte Carlo methods with couplings," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 82(3), pages 543-600, July.
    3. Ajay Jasra & Kody Law & Carina Suciu, 2020. "Advanced Multilevel Monte Carlo Methods," International Statistical Review, International Statistical Institute, vol. 88(3), pages 548-579, December.
    4. Wei Fang & Zhenru Wang & Michael B. Giles & Chris H. Jackson & Nicky J. Welton & Christophe Andrieu & Howard Thom, 2022. "Multilevel and Quasi Monte Carlo Methods for the Calculation of the Expected Value of Partial Perfect Information," Medical Decision Making, , vol. 42(2), pages 168-181, February.
    5. Michael B. Giles & Abdul-Lateef Haji-Ali & Jonathan Spence, 2023. "Efficient Risk Estimation for the Credit Valuation Adjustment," Papers 2301.05886, arXiv.org.
    6. James Hodgson & Adam M. Johansen & Murray Pollock, 2022. "Unbiased Simulation of Rare Events in Continuous Time," Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, Springer, vol. 24(3), pages 2123-2148, September.
    7. Michael B. Giles & Abdul-Lateef Haji-Ali, 2019. "Sub-sampling and other considerations for efficient risk estimation in large portfolios," Papers 1912.05484, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2022.
    8. Chao Zheng & Jiangtao Pan, 2023. "Unbiased estimators for the Heston model with stochastic interest rates," Papers 2301.12072, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2023.
    9. Nabil Kahale, 2018. "General multilevel Monte Carlo methods for pricing discretely monitored Asian options," Papers 1805.09427, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2018.
    10. Nabil Kahalé, 2020. "Randomized Dimension Reduction for Monte Carlo Simulations," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 66(3), pages 1421-1439, March.
    11. Cui, Zhenyu & Fu, Michael C. & Peng, Yijie & Zhu, Lingjiong, 2020. "Optimal unbiased estimation for expected cumulative discounted cost," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 286(2), pages 604-618.
    12. Zhengqing Zhou & Guanyang Wang & Jose Blanchet & Peter W. Glynn, 2021. "Unbiased Optimal Stopping via the MUSE," Papers 2106.02263, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2022.
    13. Ruzayqat Hamza M. & Jasra Ajay, 2020. "Unbiased estimation of the solution to Zakai’s equation," Monte Carlo Methods and Applications, De Gruyter, vol. 26(2), pages 113-129, June.
    14. Axel Finke & Adam Johansen & Dario Spanò, 2014. "Static-parameter estimation in piecewise deterministic processes using particle Gibbs samplers," Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Springer;The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, vol. 66(3), pages 577-609, June.
    15. Warne, David J. & Baker, Ruth E. & Simpson, Matthew J., 2018. "Multilevel rejection sampling for approximate Bayesian computation," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 71-86.
    16. Devang Sinha & Siddhartha P. Chakrabarty, 2022. "Multilevel Richardson-Romberg and Importance Sampling in Derivative Pricing," Papers 2209.00821, arXiv.org.
    17. Kahalé, Nabil, 2020. "General multilevel Monte Carlo methods for pricing discretely monitored Asian options," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 287(2), pages 739-748.
    18. Jikai Jin & Yiping Lu & Jose Blanchet & Lexing Ying, 2022. "Minimax Optimal Kernel Operator Learning via Multilevel Training," Papers 2209.14430, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2023.
    19. Yasa Syed & Guanyang Wang, 2023. "Optimal randomized multilevel Monte Carlo for repeatedly nested expectations," Papers 2301.04095, arXiv.org, revised May 2023.
    20. Goda, Takashi & Kitade, Wataru, 2023. "Constructing unbiased gradient estimators with finite variance for conditional stochastic optimization," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 204(C), pages 743-763.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:spapps:v:127:y:2017:i:5:p:1417-1440. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/505572/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.