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Impact of climate changes on the stability of solar energy: Evidence from observations and reanalysis

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  • Jiang, Hou
  • Lu, Ning
  • Yao, Ling
  • Qin, Jun
  • Liu, Tang

Abstract

Climate change alters the amount and spatiotemporal characteristics of solar radiation at the surface. How this affects the stability of solar energy has not yet been explored on a global scale. In this study, we combine ground observations and ERA5 reanalysis to calculate indicators of resource stability and solar intermittency to find evidence of changes in global solar energy stability over the past 20 years. The calculated results of ERA5 are highly consistent with those based on observations, allowing spatially continuous analysis using ERA5 estimates. We find that solar resource availability is on the rise in most regions, with a maximum decadal increase of up to 30 W/m2 and a rate of about 1–2 W/m2/year. The regions of significant downward trend are concentrated in the Northern Hemisphere. In addition, approximately 85% of the world's land is at risk of increasing intermittency, particularly in India, Central and Northern Africa, China, and the United States, which means that adaptation measures to mitigate intermittency should be coordinated in the context of climate change. This study contributes to understanding the climate impacts on solar energy stability and has practical value for future planning and development of solar energy.

Suggested Citation

  • Jiang, Hou & Lu, Ning & Yao, Ling & Qin, Jun & Liu, Tang, 2023. "Impact of climate changes on the stability of solar energy: Evidence from observations and reanalysis," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 208(C), pages 726-736.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:renene:v:208:y:2023:i:c:p:726-736
    DOI: 10.1016/j.renene.2023.03.114
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