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Bayesian framework for prediction of future number of failures from a single group of units in the field

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  • Ebrahimi, Nader

Abstract

This paper considers prediction of unknown number of failures in a future inspection of a group of in-service units based on number of failures observed from an earlier inspection. We develop a flexible Bayesian model and calculate Bayesian estimator for this unknown number and other quantities of interest. The paper also includes an illustration of our method in an example about heat exchanger. A main advantage of our approach is in its nonparametric nature. By nonparametric here we simply mean that no assumption is required about the failure time distribution of a unit.

Suggested Citation

  • Ebrahimi, Nader, 2009. "Bayesian framework for prediction of future number of failures from a single group of units in the field," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 94(3), pages 773-775.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:94:y:2009:i:3:p:773-775
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2008.08.009
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Bertin, Emile M. J. & Theodorescu, Radu, 1984. "Some characterizations of discrete unimodality," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 23-30, January.
    2. Graves, T.L. & Hamada, M.S. & Klamann, R. & Koehler, A. & Martz, H.F., 2007. "A fully Bayesian approach for combining multi-level information in multi-state fault tree quantification," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 92(10), pages 1476-1483.
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    Keywords

    Bayes estimates; Dirichlet distribution;

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