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A fully Bayesian approach for combining multi-level information in multi-state fault tree quantification

Author

Listed:
  • Graves, T.L.
  • Hamada, M.S.
  • Klamann, R.
  • Koehler, A.
  • Martz, H.F.

Abstract

This paper presents a fully Bayesian approach that simultaneously combines non-overlapping (in time) basic event and higher-level event failure data in fault tree quantification with multi-state events. Such higher-level data often correspond to train, subsystem or system failure events. The fully Bayesian approach also automatically propagates the highest-level data to lower levels in the fault tree. A simple example illustrates our approach.

Suggested Citation

  • Graves, T.L. & Hamada, M.S. & Klamann, R. & Koehler, A. & Martz, H.F., 2007. "A fully Bayesian approach for combining multi-level information in multi-state fault tree quantification," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 92(10), pages 1476-1483.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:92:y:2007:i:10:p:1476-1483
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2006.11.001
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    Cited by:

    1. Cao, Yingsai & Liu, Sifeng & Fang, Zhigeng & Dong, Wenjie, 2020. "Modeling ageing effects for multi-state systems with multiple components subject to competing and dependent failure processes," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 199(C).
    2. Jiang, Tao & Liu, Yu, 2017. "Parameter inference for non-repairable multi-state system reliability models by multi-level observation sequences," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 166(C), pages 3-15.
    3. Yan-Feng Li & Jinhua Mi & Yu Liu & Yuan-Jian Yang & Hong-Zhong Huang, 2015. "Dynamic fault tree analysis based on continuous-time Bayesian networks under fuzzy numbers," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 229(6), pages 530-541, December.
    4. C Jackson & A Mosleh, 2012. "Downwards inference: Bayesian analysis of overlapping higher-level data sets of complex binary-state on-demand systems," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 226(2), pages 182-193, April.
    5. Babaleye, Ahmed O. & Kurt, Rafet Emek & Khan, Faisal, 2019. "Safety analysis of plugging and abandonment of oil and gas wells in uncertain conditions with limited data," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 188(C), pages 133-141.
    6. Chenxi Liu & Nan Chen & Jianing Yang, 2015. "New method for multi-state system reliability analysis based on linear algebraic representation," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 229(5), pages 469-482, October.
    7. Zheng, Yi-Xuan & Xiahou, Tangfan & Liu, Yu & Xie, Chaoyang, 2021. "Structure function learning of hierarchical multi-state systems with incomplete observation sequences," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    8. Jackson, Chris & Mosleh, Ali, 2012. "Bayesian inference with overlapping data for systems with continuous life metrics," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 217-231.
    9. Wang, Lizhi & Pan, Rong & Li, Xiaoyang & Jiang, Tongmin, 2013. "A Bayesian reliability evaluation method with integrated accelerated degradation testing and field information," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 38-47.
    10. Jackson, Chris & Mosleh, Ali, 2016. "Bayesian inference with overlapping data: Reliability estimation of multi-state on-demand continuous life metric systems with uncertain evidence," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 124-135.
    11. Yılmaz, Emre & German, Brian J. & Pritchett, Amy R., 2023. "Optimizing resource allocations to improve system reliability via the propagation of statistical moments through fault trees," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 230(C).
    12. Khakzad, Nima & Khan, Faisal & Amyotte, Paul, 2011. "Safety analysis in process facilities: Comparison of fault tree and Bayesian network approaches," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 96(8), pages 925-932.
    13. Yang, Lechang & Wang, Pidong & Wang, Qiang & Bi, Sifeng & Peng, Rui & Behrensdorf, Jasper & Beer, Michael, 2021. "Reliability analysis of a complex system with hybrid structures and multi-level dependent life metrics," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 209(C).
    14. Cui, L.X. & Du, Yi-Mu & Sun, C.P., 2023. "On system reliability for time-varying structure," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 234(C).
    15. Ebrahimi, Nader, 2009. "Bayesian framework for prediction of future number of failures from a single group of units in the field," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 94(3), pages 773-775.
    16. C Jacksonn & A Mosleh, 2012. "Bayesian inference with overlapping data: methodology for reliability estimation of multi-state on-demand systems," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 226(3), pages 283-294, June.
    17. Yontay, Petek & Pan, Rong, 2016. "A computational Bayesian approach to dependency assessment in system reliability," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 152(C), pages 104-114.

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