IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/reensy/v112y2013icp38-47.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A Bayesian reliability evaluation method with integrated accelerated degradation testing and field information

Author

Listed:
  • Wang, Lizhi
  • Pan, Rong
  • Li, Xiaoyang
  • Jiang, Tongmin

Abstract

Accelerated degradation testing (ADT) is a common approach in reliability prediction, especially for products with high reliability. However, oftentimes the laboratory condition of ADT is different from the field condition; thus, to predict field failure, one need to calibrate the prediction made by using ADT data. In this paper a Bayesian evaluation method is proposed to integrate the ADT data from laboratory with the failure data from field. Calibration factors are introduced to calibrate the difference between the lab and the field conditions so as to predict a product's actual field reliability more accurately. The information fusion and statistical inference procedure are carried out through a Bayesian approach and Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. The proposed method is demonstrated by two examples and the sensitivity analysis to prior distribution assumption.

Suggested Citation

  • Wang, Lizhi & Pan, Rong & Li, Xiaoyang & Jiang, Tongmin, 2013. "A Bayesian reliability evaluation method with integrated accelerated degradation testing and field information," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 38-47.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:112:y:2013:i:c:p:38-47
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2012.09.015
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0951832012002141
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ress.2012.09.015?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Guida, M. & Postiglione, F. & Pulcini, G., 2012. "A time-discrete extended gamma process for time-dependent degradation phenomena," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 73-79.
    2. Graves, T.L. & Hamada, M.S. & Klamann, R. & Koehler, A. & Martz, H.F., 2007. "A fully Bayesian approach for combining multi-level information in multi-state fault tree quantification," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 92(10), pages 1476-1483.
    3. Bae, Suk Joo & Kuo, Way & Kvam, Paul H., 2007. "Degradation models and implied lifetime distributions," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 92(5), pages 601-608.
    4. Barker, C.T. & Newby, M.J., 2009. "Optimal non-periodic inspection for a multivariate degradation model," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 94(1), pages 33-43.
    5. Graves, T.L. & Hamada, M.S. & Klamann, R.M. & Koehler, A.C. & Martz, H.F., 2008. "Using simultaneous higher-level and partial lower-level data in reliability assessments," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 93(8), pages 1273-1279.
    6. Haitao Liao & Elsayed A. Elsayed, 2006. "Reliability inference for field conditions from accelerated degradation testing," Naval Research Logistics (NRL), John Wiley & Sons, vol. 53(6), pages 576-587, September.
    7. Pan, Zhengqiang & Balakrishnan, Narayanaswamy, 2011. "Reliability modeling of degradation of products with multiple performance characteristics based on gamma processes," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 96(8), pages 949-957.
    8. Touw, Anduin E., 2009. "Bayesian estimation of mixed Weibull distributions," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 94(2), pages 463-473.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Wang, Huan & Wang, Guan-jun & Duan, Feng-jun, 2016. "Planning of step-stress accelerated degradation test based on the inverse Gaussian process," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 97-105.
    2. Shuto, Susumu & Amemiya, Takashi, 2022. "Sequential Bayesian inference for Weibull distribution parameters with initial hyperparameter optimization for system reliability estimation," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 224(C).
    3. Dan Xu & Jiaolan He & Zhou Yang, 2022. "Reliability prediction based on Birnbaum–Saunders model and its application to smart meter," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 312(1), pages 519-532, May.
    4. Peng, Weiwen & Li, Yan-Feng & Yang, Yuan-Jian & Huang, Hong-Zhong & Zuo, Ming J., 2014. "Inverse Gaussian process models for degradation analysis: A Bayesian perspective," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 175-189.
    5. Chen, Wen-Bin & Li, Xiao-Yang & Kang, Rui, 2022. "Integration for degradation analysis with multi-source ADT datasets considering dataset discrepancies and epistemic uncertainties," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 222(C).
    6. Liu, Di & Wang, Shaoping, 2020. "A degradation modeling and reliability estimation method based on Wiener process and evidential variable," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 202(C).
    7. Sun, Xuxue & Mraied, Hesham & Cai, Wenjun & Zhang, Qiong & Liang, Guoyuan & Li, Mingyang, 2018. "Bayesian latent degradation performance modeling and quantification of corroding aluminum alloys," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 178(C), pages 84-96.
    8. Li Sun & Fangchao Zhao & Narayanaswamy Balakrishnan & Honggen Zhou & Xiaohui Gu, 2021. "A nonlinear Wiener degradation model integrating degradation data under accelerated stresses and real operating environment," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 235(3), pages 356-373, June.
    9. Jiaxin Yang & Shengjin Tang & Pengya Fang & Fengfei Wang & Xiaoyan Sun & Xiaosheng Si, 2024. "Remaining useful life prediction of implicit linear Wiener degradation process based on multi-source information," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 238(1), pages 93-111, February.
    10. Pang, Zhenan & Si, Xiaosheng & Hu, Changhua & Du, Dangbo & Pei, Hong, 2021. "A Bayesian Inference for Remaining Useful Life Estimation by Fusing Accelerated Degradation Data and Condition Monitoring Data," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 208(C).
    11. Woo, Seong-woo & Pecht, Michael & O'Neal, Dennis L., 2020. "Reliability design and case study of the domestic compressor subjected to repetitive internal stresses," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    12. Volf, P. & Timková, J., 2014. "On selection of optimal stochastic model for accelerated life testing," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 291-297.
    13. Le Liu & Xiao-Yang Li & Enrico Zio & Rui Kang & Tong-Min Jiang, 2017. "Model Uncertainty in Accelerated Degradation Testing Analysis," Post-Print hal-01652218, HAL.
    14. Dejing Kong & Lirong Cui, 2016. "Bayesian inference of multi-stage reliability for degradation systems with calibrations," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 230(1), pages 18-33, February.
    15. Liu, Di & Wang, Shaoping, 2021. "Reliability estimation from lifetime testing data and degradation testing data with measurement error based on evidential variable and Wiener process," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 205(C).
    16. Wang, Lizhi & Pan, Rong & Wang, Xiaohong & Fan, Wenhui & Xuan, Jinquan, 2017. "A Bayesian reliability evaluation method with different types of data from multiple sources," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 167(C), pages 128-135.
    17. Liu, Di & Wang, Shaoping & Cui, Xiaoyu, 2022. "An artificial neural network supported Wiener process based reliability estimation method considering individual difference and measurement error," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 218(PB).
    18. Peihua Jiang, 2022. "Statistical Inference of Wiener Constant-Stress Accelerated Degradation Model with Random Effects," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(16), pages 1-18, August.
    19. Zhang, Zhengxin & Si, Xiaosheng & Hu, Changhua & Lei, Yaguo, 2018. "Degradation data analysis and remaining useful life estimation: A review on Wiener-process-based methods," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 271(3), pages 775-796.
    20. Liu, Di & Wang, Shaoping & Zhang, Chao & Tomovic, Mileta, 2018. "Bayesian model averaging based reliability analysis method for monotonic degradation dataset based on inverse Gaussian process and Gamma process," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 180(C), pages 25-38.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Peng, Weiwen & Li, Yan-Feng & Mi, Jinhua & Yu, Le & Huang, Hong-Zhong, 2016. "Reliability of complex systems under dynamic conditions: A Bayesian multivariate degradation perspective," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 153(C), pages 75-87.
    2. Peng, Weiwen & Li, Yan-Feng & Yang, Yuan-Jian & Huang, Hong-Zhong & Zuo, Ming J., 2014. "Inverse Gaussian process models for degradation analysis: A Bayesian perspective," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 175-189.
    3. Tianyu Liu & Zhengqiang Pan & Quan Sun & Jing Feng & Yanzhen Tang, 2017. "Residual useful life estimation for products with two performance characteristics based on a bivariate Wiener process," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 231(1), pages 69-80, February.
    4. Jackson, Chris & Mosleh, Ali, 2016. "Bayesian inference with overlapping data: Reliability estimation of multi-state on-demand continuous life metric systems with uncertain evidence," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 124-135.
    5. Wang, Huan & Wang, Guan-jun & Duan, Feng-jun, 2016. "Planning of step-stress accelerated degradation test based on the inverse Gaussian process," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 97-105.
    6. Wang, Lizhi & Pan, Rong & Wang, Xiaohong & Fan, Wenhui & Xuan, Jinquan, 2017. "A Bayesian reliability evaluation method with different types of data from multiple sources," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 167(C), pages 128-135.
    7. Yontay, Petek & Pan, Rong, 2016. "A computational Bayesian approach to dependency assessment in system reliability," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 152(C), pages 104-114.
    8. Baussaron, Julien & Mihaela, Barreau & Léo, Gerville-Réache & Fabrice, Guérin & Paul, Schimmerling, 2014. "Reliability assessment based on degradation measurements: How to compare some models?," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 236-241.
    9. C Jacksonn & A Mosleh, 2012. "Bayesian inference with overlapping data: methodology for reliability estimation of multi-state on-demand systems," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 226(3), pages 283-294, June.
    10. Peihua Jiang, 2022. "Statistical Inference of Wiener Constant-Stress Accelerated Degradation Model with Random Effects," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(16), pages 1-18, August.
    11. Yang, Lechang & Wang, Pidong & Wang, Qiang & Bi, Sifeng & Peng, Rui & Behrensdorf, Jasper & Beer, Michael, 2021. "Reliability analysis of a complex system with hybrid structures and multi-level dependent life metrics," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 209(C).
    12. Zhang, Zhengxin & Si, Xiaosheng & Hu, Changhua & Lei, Yaguo, 2018. "Degradation data analysis and remaining useful life estimation: A review on Wiener-process-based methods," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 271(3), pages 775-796.
    13. Jackson, Chris & Mosleh, Ali, 2012. "Bayesian inference with overlapping data for systems with continuous life metrics," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 217-231.
    14. Dejing Kong & Lirong Cui, 2016. "Bayesian inference of multi-stage reliability for degradation systems with calibrations," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 230(1), pages 18-33, February.
    15. Si, Xiao-Sheng & Wang, Wenbin & Hu, Chang-Hua & Zhou, Dong-Hua, 2011. "Remaining useful life estimation - A review on the statistical data driven approaches," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 213(1), pages 1-14, August.
    16. Soliman, Ahmed A. & Abd-Ellah, Ahmed H. & Abou-Elheggag, Naser A. & Ahmed, Essam A., 2012. "Modified Weibull model: A Bayes study using MCMC approach based on progressive censoring data," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 48-57.
    17. Pan, Zhengqiang & Balakrishnan, Narayanaswamy, 2011. "Reliability modeling of degradation of products with multiple performance characteristics based on gamma processes," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 96(8), pages 949-957.
    18. Song, Kai & Shi, Jian & Yi, Xiaojian, 2020. "A time-discrete and zero-adjusted gamma process model with application to degradation analysis," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 560(C).
    19. Wen, Yuxin & Wu, Jianguo & Das, Devashish & Tseng, Tzu-Liang(Bill), 2018. "Degradation modeling and RUL prediction using Wiener process subject to multiple change points and unit heterogeneity," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 176(C), pages 113-124.
    20. Zhang, Jianchun & Zhao, Yu & Ma, Xiaobing, 2020. "Reliability modeling methods for load-sharing k-out-of-n system subject to discrete external load," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:112:y:2013:i:c:p:38-47. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/reliability-engineering-and-system-safety .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.