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A new estimator for sensitivity analysis of model output: An application to the e-business readiness composite indicator

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  • Tarantola, Stefano
  • Nardo, Michela
  • Saisana, Michaela
  • Gatelli, Debora

Abstract

In this paper we propose and test a generalisation of the method originally proposed by Sobol’, and recently extended by Saltelli, to estimate the first-order and total effect sensitivity indices. Exploiting the symmetries and the dualities of the formulas, we obtain additional estimates of first-order and total indices at no extra computational cost. We test the technique on a case study involving the construction of a composite indicator of e-business readiness, which is part of the initiative “e-Readiness of European enterprises†of the European Commission “e-Europe 2005†action plan. The method is used to assess the contribution of uncertainties in (a) the weights of the component indicators and (b) the imputation of missing data on the composite indicator values for several European countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Tarantola, Stefano & Nardo, Michela & Saisana, Michaela & Gatelli, Debora, 2006. "A new estimator for sensitivity analysis of model output: An application to the e-business readiness composite indicator," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 91(10), pages 1135-1141.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:91:y:2006:i:10:p:1135-1141
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2005.11.048
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. M. Saisana & A. Saltelli & S. Tarantola, 2005. "Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis techniques as tools for the quality assessment of composite indicators," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 168(2), pages 307-323, March.
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    2. Hermans, Elke & Van den Bossche, Filip & Wets, Geert, 2009. "Uncertainty assessment of the road safety index," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 94(7), pages 1220-1228.
    3. Ren, Xiaoli & He, Honglin & Zhang, Li & Li, Fan & Liu, Min & Yu, Guirui & Zhang, Junhui, 2018. "Modeling and uncertainty analysis of carbon and water fluxes in a broad-leaved Korean pine mixed forest based on model-data fusion," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 379(C), pages 39-53.
    4. Azzini, Ivano & Rosati, Rossana, 2021. "Sobol’ main effect index: an Innovative Algorithm (IA) using Dynamic Adaptive Variances," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 213(C).

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