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Populism and propagation of far-right extremism

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  • Hagemeister, Felix

Abstract

Under which conditions does populist success propagate far-right extremism? This paper examines how an information shock about the acceptance of xenophobic positions spurs an increase in far-right protests in more liberal areas in Germany. Using staggered state elections between 2014 and 2017 as a quasi-natural experiment and leveraging novel data, I show that far-right protests are unleashed in more liberal areas which were “shocked” by the surprising state-level results of the newly emerging right-wing populist AfD party (“Alternative für Deutschland”). The effect is sizeable, but depends on surprise. When success of the populist party is severely underestimated, a municipality with a populist vote share 10 percentage points below state average faces a roughly 30 percent increase of the mean likelihood of an additional far-right protest. The effect materializes only after the rightward shift of the AfD and vanishes when polling institutions correctly estimate the populist party’s success.

Suggested Citation

  • Hagemeister, Felix, 2022. "Populism and propagation of far-right extremism," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:poleco:v:72:y:2022:i:c:s0176268021000999
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2021.102116
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    Cited by:

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Populism; Far-right; Extremism; Protests; Germany;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making

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