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A generalized stochastic SIRS epidemic model incorporating mean-reverting Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process

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  • Laaribi, Aziz
  • Boukanjime, Brahim
  • El Khalifi, Mohamed
  • Bouggar, Driss
  • El Fatini, Mohamed

Abstract

The aim of this work is to study a new stochastic SIRS epidemic model that includes the mean-reverting Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process and a general incidence rate. First, we prove the global existence and positivity of the solution by using Lyapunov functions. Second, we analytically make out the stochastic epidemic threshold T̃0S which pilots the extinction and persistence in mean of the disease. We have proven that the disease extinguishes when T̃0S<1. Otherwise, if T̃0S>1, then disease is persistent in mean. For the critical case T̃0S=1, we have shown that the disease dies out by using an approach involving some appropriate stopping times. Finally, we present a series of numerical simulations to confirm the feasibility and correctness of the theoretical analysis results.

Suggested Citation

  • Laaribi, Aziz & Boukanjime, Brahim & El Khalifi, Mohamed & Bouggar, Driss & El Fatini, Mohamed, 2023. "A generalized stochastic SIRS epidemic model incorporating mean-reverting Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 615(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:615:y:2023:i:c:s0378437123001644
    DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2023.128609
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Cai, Yongli & Jiao, Jianjun & Gui, Zhanji & Liu, Yuting & Wang, Weiming, 2018. "Environmental variability in a stochastic epidemic model," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 329(C), pages 210-226.
    2. Boukanjime, Brahim & El Fatini, Mohamed & Laaribi, Aziz & Taki, Regragui, 2019. "Analysis of a deterministic and a stochastic epidemic model with two distinct epidemics hypothesis," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 534(C).
    3. El Fatini, Mohamed & Lahrouz, Aadil & Pettersson, Roger & Settati, Adel & Taki, Regragui, 2018. "Stochastic stability and instability of an epidemic model with relapse," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 316(C), pages 326-341.
    4. Wang, Weiming & Cai, Yongli & Ding, Zuqin & Gui, Zhanji, 2018. "A stochastic differential equation SIS epidemic model incorporating Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 509(C), pages 921-936.
    5. Boukanjime, Brahim & El Fatini, Mohamed, 2019. "A stochastic Hepatitis B epidemic model driven by Lévy noise," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 521(C), pages 796-806.
    6. S. P. Rajasekar & M. Pitchaimani & Quanxin Zhu & Kaibo Shi, 2021. "Exploring the Stochastic Host-Pathogen Tuberculosis Model with Adaptive Immune Response," Mathematical Problems in Engineering, Hindawi, vol. 2021, pages 1-23, June.
    7. Boukanjime, Brahim & Caraballo, Tomás & El Fatini, Mohamed & El Khalifi, Mohamed, 2020. "Dynamics of a stochastic coronavirus (COVID-19) epidemic model with Markovian switching," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    8. El Fatini, Mohamed & El Khalifi, Mohamed & Gerlach, Richard & Laaribi, Aziz & Taki, Regragui, 2019. "Stationary distribution and threshold dynamics of a stochastic SIRS model with a general incidence," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 534(C).
    9. Caraballo, Tomás & Fatini, Mohamed El & Khalifi, Mohamed El & Gerlach, Richard & Pettersson, Roger, 2020. "Analysis of a stochastic distributed delay epidemic model with relapse and Gamma distribution kernel," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    10. Lahrouz, Aadil & Omari, Lahcen, 2013. "Extinction and stationary distribution of a stochastic SIRS epidemic model with non-linear incidence," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 83(4), pages 960-968.
    11. Berrhazi, Badreddine & El Fatini, Mohamed & Lahrouz, Aadil & Settati, Adel & Taki, Regragui, 2018. "A stochastic SIRS epidemic model with a general awareness-induced incidence," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 512(C), pages 968-980.
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