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Stochastic extinction and persistence of a parasite–host epidemiological model

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  • Liu, Yuting
  • Shan, Meijing
  • Lian, Xinze
  • Wang, Weiming

Abstract

In this paper, we investigate the stochastic extinction and persistence of a parasite–host epidemiological model. We show that the global dynamics of the stochastic model can be governed by the basic reproduction number R0S: if R0S<1, under mild extra conditions, the disease goes to extinction with probability one and the disease-free dynamics occurs; while R0S>1, under mild extra conditions, the disease persists and endemic dynamics occurs almost surely, the solutions of the stochastic model fluctuate around the steady state of the deterministic model, and a unique stationary distribution can be found. Based on realistic parameters of Daphnia-microparasite system, numerical simulations have been performed to verify/extend our analytical results. Epidemiologically, we find that: (1) Large environment fluctuations can suppress the outbreak of disease; (2) The distributions are governed by R0S; (3) The noise perturbations can be beneficial to control the spread of disease on average.

Suggested Citation

  • Liu, Yuting & Shan, Meijing & Lian, Xinze & Wang, Weiming, 2016. "Stochastic extinction and persistence of a parasite–host epidemiological model," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 462(C), pages 586-602.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:462:y:2016:i:c:p:586-602
    DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2016.06.022
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Cao, Boqiang & Shan, Meijing & Zhang, Qimin & Wang, Weiming, 2017. "A stochastic SIS epidemic model with vaccination," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 486(C), pages 127-143.
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    3. Acuña-Zegarra, Manuel Adrian & Díaz-Infante, Saúl, 2018. "Stochastic asymptotic analysis of a multi-host model with vector transmission," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 510(C), pages 243-260.
    4. Rifhat, Ramziya & Wang, Lei & Teng, Zhidong, 2017. "Dynamics for a class of stochastic SIS epidemic models with nonlinear incidence and periodic coefficients," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 481(C), pages 176-190.

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