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Risk bubbles and market instability

Author

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  • Marsili, Matteo
  • Raffaelli, Giacomo

Abstract

We discuss a simple model of correlated assets capturing the feedback effects induced by portfolio investment in the covariance dynamics. This model predicts an instability when the volume of investment exceeds a critical value. Close to the critical point the model exhibits dynamical correlations very similar to those observed in real markets. Maximum likelihood estimates of the model's parameter for empirical data indeed confirms this conclusion. We show that this picture is confirmed by the empirical analysis for different choices of the time horizon.

Suggested Citation

  • Marsili, Matteo & Raffaelli, Giacomo, 2006. "Risk bubbles and market instability," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 370(1), pages 18-22.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:370:y:2006:i:1:p:18-22
    DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2006.04.033
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Challet, Damien & Marsili, Matteo & Zhang, Yi-Cheng, 2013. "Minority Games: Interacting agents in financial markets," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199686698, Decembrie.
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    Cited by:

    1. Panagiotis Papaioannnou & Lucia Russo & George Papaioannou & Constantinos Siettos, 2013. "Can social microblogging be used to forecast intraday exchange rates?," Papers 1310.5306, arXiv.org.
    2. Kiss, Gábor Dávid & Kosztopulosz, Andreász, 2012. "The impact of the crisis on the monetary autonomy of Central and Eastern European countries," Public Finance Quarterly, Corvinus University of Budapest, vol. 57(1), pages 28-52.
    3. Panagiotis Papaioannou & Lucia Russo & George Papaioannou & Constantinos Siettos, 2013. "Can social microblogging be used to forecast intraday exchange rates?," Netnomics, Springer, vol. 14(1), pages 47-68, November.

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