IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/pacfin/v74y2022ics0927538x22001044.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Overnight returns, daytime reversals, and future stock returns: Is China different?

Author

Listed:
  • Cheema, Muhammad A.
  • Chiah, Mardy
  • Man, Yimei

Abstract

Akbas et al. (2021) demonstrate that a more intense daily “tug of war” between overnight noise traders and daytime arbitrageurs predicts higher future returns in the US market. We investigate whether the daily tug of war contains predictive information about future stock returns in China. Using the frequency of negative daytime reversals, we find no significant difference in the future returns of stocks with a high versus a low level of intensity in this tug of war. However, we find persistent positive overnight returns followed by daytime reversals of almost similar magnitudes once we decompose the future returns into their overnight and daytime components. Thus, positive returns of the overnight component and negative returns of the daytime component cancel out each other, resulting in no predictive relationship between the daily tug of war and future returns in China.

Suggested Citation

  • Cheema, Muhammad A. & Chiah, Mardy & Man, Yimei, 2022. "Overnight returns, daytime reversals, and future stock returns: Is China different?," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:pacfin:v:74:y:2022:i:c:s0927538x22001044
    DOI: 10.1016/j.pacfin.2022.101809
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0927538X22001044
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.pacfin.2022.101809?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Cheema, Muhammad A. & Scrimgeour, Frank, 2019. "Oil prices and stock market anomalies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 578-587.
    2. John Y. Campbell & Jens Hilscher & Jan Szilagyi, 2008. "In Search of Distress Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(6), pages 2899-2939, December.
    3. Muhammad A. Cheema & Gilbert V. Nartea & Yimei Man, 2020. "Maxing Out in China: Optimism or Attention?," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 20(4), pages 961-971, December.
    4. Nagel, Stefan, 2005. "Short sales, institutional investors and the cross-section of stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(2), pages 277-309, November.
    5. Jacobs, Heiko, 2016. "Market maturity and mispricing," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(2), pages 270-287.
    6. Neil D Pearson & Zhishu Yang & Qi Zhang & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2021. "The Chinese Warrants Bubble: Evidence from Brokerage Account Records," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 34(1), pages 264-312.
    7. Gao, Ya & Han, Xing & Li, Youwei & Xiong, Xiong, 2019. "Overnight momentum, informational shocks, and late informed trading in China," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    8. Robert F. Stambaugh & Jianfeng Yu & Yu Yuan, 2015. "Arbitrage Asymmetry and the Idiosyncratic Volatility Puzzle," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 70(5), pages 1903-1948, October.
    9. Neil D Pearson & Zhishu Yang & Qi Zhang, 2021. "The Chinese Warrants Bubble: Evidence from Brokerage Account Records [Bubbles and crises]," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(1), pages 264-312.
    10. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
    11. Chen, Xuanjuan & Kim, Kenneth A. & Yao, Tong & Yu, Tong, 2010. "On the predictability of Chinese stock returns," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 403-425, September.
    12. Lou, Dong & Polk, Christopher & Skouras, Spyros, 2019. "A tug of war: overnight versus intraday expected returns," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 87481, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    13. Lou, Dong & Polk, Christopher & Skouras, Spyros, 2019. "A tug of war: Overnight versus intraday expected returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(1), pages 192-213.
    14. Berkman, Henk & Koch, Paul D. & Tuttle, Laura & Zhang, Ying Jenny, 2012. "Paying Attention: Overnight Returns and the Hidden Cost of Buying at the Open," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 47(4), pages 715-741, August.
    15. Jacobs, Heiko & Müller, Sebastian, 2020. "Anomalies across the globe: Once public, no longer existent?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(1), pages 213-230.
    16. Carhart, Mark M, 1997. "On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 57-82, March.
    17. Hendershott, Terrence & Livdan, Dmitry & Rösch, Dominik, 2020. "Asset pricing: A tale of night and day," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(3), pages 635-662.
    18. Bogousslavsky, Vincent, 2021. "The cross-section of intraday and overnight returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(1), pages 172-194.
    19. Goyal, Amit & Wahal, Sunil, 2015. "Is Momentum an Echo?," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 50(6), pages 1237-1267, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ham, Hyuna & Ryu, Doojin & Webb, Robert I. & Yu, Jinyoung, 2023. "How do investors react to overnight returns? Evidence from Korea," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    2. Lin, Chaonan & Chang, Hui-Wen & Chou, Robin K., 2023. "Overnight versus intraday returns of anomalies in China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    3. Bai, Fan & Zhang, Yaqi & Chen, Zhonglu & Li, Yan, 2023. "The volatility of daily tug-of-war intensity and stock market returns," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 55(PA).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lin, Chaonan & Chang, Hui-Wen & Chou, Robin K., 2023. "Overnight versus intraday returns of anomalies in China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    2. Wang, Cheng & Bouri, Elie & Xu, Yahua & Zhang, Dingsheng, 2023. "Intraday and overnight tail risks and return predictability in the crude oil market: Evidence from oil-related regular news and extreme shocks," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(PB).
    3. Bogousslavsky, Vincent, 2021. "The cross-section of intraday and overnight returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(1), pages 172-194.
    4. Lu, Zhongjin & Malliaris, Steven & Qin, Zhongling, 2023. "Heterogeneous liquidity providers and night-minus-day return predictability," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 148(3), pages 175-200.
    5. Kallinterakis, Vasileios & Karaa, Rabaa, 2023. "From dusk till dawn (and vice versa): Overnight-versus-daytime reversals and feedback trading," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    6. Nguyen, Hung T. & Pham, Mia Hang, 2021. "Air pollution and behavioral biases: Evidence from stock market anomalies," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C).
    7. Hanauer, Matthias X. & Lesnevski, Pavel & Smajlbegovic, Esad, 2023. "Surprise in short interest," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    8. Jang, Jeewon, 2017. "Stock return anomalies and individual investors in the Korean stock market," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 46(PA), pages 141-157.
    9. Insana, Alessandra, 2022. "Does systematic risk change when markets close? An analysis using stocks’ beta," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    10. Xin Chen & Wei He & Libin Tao & Jianfeng Yu, 2023. "Attention and Underreaction-Related Anomalies," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 69(1), pages 636-659, January.
    11. Cynthia M. Gong & Di Luo & Huainan Zhao, 2021. "Liquidity risk and the beta premium," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 44(4), pages 789-814, December.
    12. Akbas, Ferhat & Boehmer, Ekkehart & Jiang, Chao & Koch, Paul D., 2022. "Overnight returns, daytime reversals, and future stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(3), pages 850-875.
    13. Cao, Zhiqi & Lv, Dayong & Sun, Zhenzhen, 2021. "Stock price manipulation, short-sale constraints, and breadth-return relationship," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    14. Barardehi, Yashar H. & Bernhardt, Dan & Da, Zhi & Mitch Warachka, Mitch, 2022. "Institutional Liquidity Demand and the Internalization of Retail Order Flow : The Tail Does Not Wag the Dog," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 1394, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    15. Cakici, Nusret & Fieberg, Christian & Metko, Daniel & Zaremba, Adam, 2023. "Machine learning goes global: Cross-sectional return predictability in international stock markets," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    16. Cosemans, Mathijs & Frehen, Rik, 2021. "Salience theory and stock prices: Empirical evidence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(2), pages 460-483.
    17. Mohrschladt, Hannes & Langer, Thomas, 2020. "Biased information weight processing in stock markets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 89-106.
    18. Gao, Ya & Han, Xing & Li, Youwei & Xiong, Xiong, 2021. "Investor heterogeneity and momentum-based trading strategies in China," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    19. Jang, Jeewon & Kang, Jangkoo, 2019. "Probability of price crashes, rational speculative bubbles, and the cross-section of stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(1), pages 222-247.
    20. Qiu, Jiayan & Huang, Wei & Jiang, Ying, 2023. "When do they trade? Heterogeneous investors in China," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Tug of war; China; Overnight returns; Daytime reversal; Individuals; Arbitrageurs;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:pacfin:v:74:y:2022:i:c:s0927538x22001044. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/pacfin .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.