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The short rate disconnect in a monetary economy

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  • Lenel, Moritz
  • Piazzesi, Monika
  • Schneider, Martin

Abstract

In modern monetary economies, most payments are made with inside money provided by payment intermediaries. This paper studies interest rate dynamics when payment intermediaries value short bonds as collateral to back inside money. We estimate intermediary Euler equations that relate the short safe rate to other interest rates as well as intermediary leverage and portfolio risk. Towards the end of economic booms, the short rate set by the central bank disconnects from other interest rates: as collateral becomes scarce and spreads widen, payment intermediaries reduce leverage, and increase portfolio risk. We document stable business cycle relationships between spreads, leverage, and the safe portfolio share of payment intermediaries that are consistent with the model. Structural changes, especially in regulation, induce low frequency shifts, such as after the financial crisis.

Suggested Citation

  • Lenel, Moritz & Piazzesi, Monika & Schneider, Martin, 2019. "The short rate disconnect in a monetary economy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 59-77.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:moneco:v:106:y:2019:i:c:p:59-77
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2019.07.008
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    3. William Chen & Gregory Phelan, 2023. "Should Monetary Policy Target Financial Stability," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 49, pages 181-200, July.
    4. George J. Bratsiotis, 2021. "Interest on Reserves as a Main Monetary Policy Tool," Economics Discussion Paper Series 2102, Economics, The University of Manchester, revised Feb 2022.
    5. He, Zhiguo & Nagel, Stefan & Song, Zhaogang, 2022. "Treasury inconvenience yields during the COVID-19 crisis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(1), pages 57-79.
    6. Jia, Pengfei, 2021. "Understanding a New Keynesian Model with Liquidity," MPRA Paper 108286, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    9. Faia, Ester & Karau, Soeren, 2019. "Systemic Bank Risk and Monetary Policy," CEPR Discussion Papers 13456, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary policy; Bank leverage; Cost of safety;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E40 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - General
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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