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Land use change drivers in the Hyrcanian Vegetation Area: Dynamic simultaneous equations system with panel data approach

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  • Jahanifar, Komeil
  • Amirnejad, Hamid
  • Mojaverian, Seyed Mojtaba
  • Azadi, Hossein

Abstract

This case study has been carried out on the Hyrcanian Vegetation Area (HVA) located in Northern Iran. The current study aimed to identify the drivers and variables that have been effective in the land use changes (LUCs) of forests, rangelands, agricultural lands, and residential areas from 1997 to 2017 in 14 townships. For this purpose, satellite images are prepared and after the processing, the level of change is determined by using the Geospatial monitoring and modeling system. In the following, the level of LUCs along with economic, social, ecological, and legal drivers in the form of a simultaneous equation system was estimated by Two-Stage Least Square (2SLS) estimator. LUCs’ results showed that the forest in 1997 was about 623529 ha, and it decreased by 618419 ha in 2017. In addition, the rangeland at the beginning of the period was 914780 ha, and in the end, it reached about 906103 ha. Satellite images showed that about 183592 ha of forests were converted into agricultural lands and about 276091 ha to residential areas. Moreover, in rangelands, 56035 ha of them have been farmed, and about 197894 ha have been changed to residential areas. Furthermore, the results stated that in all scenarios of changes, economic drivers such as income per capita, inflation, and products relative price played the main role. Moreover, social drivers play a significant role in changing the agricultural land and rangeland to residential areas. Factors such as population and the demand for food and housing show that the importance of this issue is more than ever before. Unfortunately, ecological drivers have unexpectedly had the least impact on LUCs. As a result, it is recommended to minimize the cost of agricultural inputs and adjust the market price of products considering the inflation rate. Moreover, population adjustment policies should also be considered to reduce the growing population pressure. Finally, the government should play a more effective role in protecting lands and preventing their change of use. This should be done through making fair distribution policies on wealth, applying the provision of funds and the long-term return to low-income farmers, strengthening the income sources of residents, and by developing and equipping protection units.

Suggested Citation

  • Jahanifar, Komeil & Amirnejad, Hamid & Mojaverian, Seyed Mojtaba & Azadi, Hossein, 2020. "Land use change drivers in the Hyrcanian Vegetation Area: Dynamic simultaneous equations system with panel data approach," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:lauspo:v:99:y:2020:i:c:s0264837719316278
    DOI: 10.1016/j.landusepol.2020.104954
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Amirnejad, Hamid & Khalilian, Sadegh & Assareh, Mohammad H. & Ahmadian, Majid, 2006. "Estimating the existence value of north forests of Iran by using a contingent valuation method," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(4), pages 665-675, July.
    2. Jahanifar, Komeil & Amirnejad, Hamid & Azadi, Hossein & Adenle, Ademola A. & Scheffran, Jürgen, 2019. "Economic analysis of land use changes in forests and rangelands: Developing conservation strategies," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    3. Robert Gilmore Pontius & Yan Gao & Nicholas M. Giner & Takashi Kohyama & Mitsuru Osaki & Kazuyo Hirose, 2013. "Design and Interpretation of Intensity Analysis Illustrated by Land Change in Central Kalimantan, Indonesia," Land, MDPI, vol. 2(3), pages 1-19, July.
    4. Sonter, Laura J. & Johnson, Justin A. & Nicholson, Charles C. & Richardson, Leif L. & Watson, Keri B. & Ricketts, Taylor H., 2017. "Multi-site interactions: Understanding the offsite impacts of land use change on the use and supply of ecosystem services," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 158-164.
    5. Julie G. Zaehringer & Sandra Eckert & Peter Messerli, 2015. "Revealing Regional Deforestation Dynamics in North-Eastern Madagascar—Insights from Multi-Temporal Land Cover Change Analysis," Land, MDPI, vol. 4(2), pages 1-21, May.
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    1. Yunfei Peng & Fangling Yang & Lingwei Zhu & Ruru Li & Chao Wu & Deng Chen, 2021. "Comparative Analysis of the Factors Influencing Land Use Change for Emerging Industry and Traditional Industry: A Case Study of Shenzhen City, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(6), pages 1-17, May.
    2. Movahedi, Reza & Jawanmardi, Sina & Azadi, Hossein & Goli, Imaneh & Viira, Ants-Hannes & Witlox, Frank, 2021. "Why do farmers abandon agricultural lands? The case of Western Iran," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).

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