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Emerging markets: Prospects and challenges

Author

Listed:
  • Gudmundsson, Tryggvi
  • Klyuev, Vladimir
  • Medina, Leandro
  • Nandwa, Boaz
  • Plotnikov, Dmitry
  • Schiffrer, Francisco
  • Yang, Di

Abstract

This article documents recent developments in emerging markets in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic, assesses their prospects and challenges, and discusses appropriate policy settings for the medium term. It argues that EM policymakers’ ability to grapple with an incomplete and uneven recovery will be constrained by high public debt and uncertain inflation prospects as well as external risks surrounding capital flows and exchange rate developments. The paper also discusses potential impact of a tightening in global financial conditions and appreciation of the US dollar that could be triggered by a general increase in risk aversion or a reassessment of the likely path of US monetary policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Gudmundsson, Tryggvi & Klyuev, Vladimir & Medina, Leandro & Nandwa, Boaz & Plotnikov, Dmitry & Schiffrer, Francisco & Yang, Di, 2022. "Emerging markets: Prospects and challenges," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 44(4), pages 827-841.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jpolmo:v:44:y:2022:i:4:p:827-841
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2022.09.012
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    4. Olivier J Blanchard & Josh Felman & Arvind Subramanian, 2021. "Does the new fiscal consensus in advanced economies travel to emerging markets?," Policy Briefs PB21-7, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    5. Patrick Augustin & Hamid Boustanifar & Johannes Breckenfelder & Jan Schnitzler, 2018. "Sovereign to Corporate Risk Spillovers," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(5), pages 857-891, August.
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    7. Yasin Mimir & Enes Sunel, 2019. "External Shocks, Banks, and Optimal Monetary Policy: A Recipe for Emerging Market Central Banks," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 15(2), pages 235-299, June.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Emerging markets; COVID-19; Monetary policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F01 - International Economics - - General - - - Global Outlook
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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