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Modeling U.S. monetary policy during the global financial crisis and lessons for Covid-19

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  • Bhar, Ramaprasad
  • Malliaris, A.G.

Abstract

The paper formulates the modeling of unconventional monetary policy and critically evaluates its effectiveness to address the Global Financial Crisis. We begin with certain principles guiding general scientific modeling and focus on Milton Friedman's 1968 Presidential Address that delineates the strengths and limitations of monetary policy to pursue certain goals. The modeling of monetary policy with its novelty of quantitative easing to target unusually high unemployment is evaluated by a Markov switching econometric model using monthly data for the period 2002–2015. We conclude by relating the lessons learned from unconventional monetary policy during the Global Financial Crisis to the recent bold initiatives of the Fed to mitigate the economic and financial impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on U.S. households and businesses.

Suggested Citation

  • Bhar, Ramaprasad & Malliaris, A.G., 2021. "Modeling U.S. monetary policy during the global financial crisis and lessons for Covid-19," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 15-33.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jpolmo:v:43:y:2021:i:1:p:15-33
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2020.07.001
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    Cited by:

    1. Anastasios Evgenidis & Anastasios G. Malliaris, 2022. "Monetary policy, financial shocks and economic activity," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 59(2), pages 429-456, August.
    2. Zhang, Dengjun & Sogn-Grundvåg, Geir, 2022. "Credit constraints and the severity of COVID-19 impact: Empirical evidence from enterprise surveys," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 337-349.
    3. Oscar Afonso & Pedro G. Lima, 2023. "Effects of monetary policy on the skill premium and the growth rate in a directed technical change model with heterogeneous cash‐in‐advance constraints," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(4), pages 4020-4036, October.
    4. Alessandro Gennaro & Michelle Nietlispach, 2021. "Corporate Governance and Risk Management: Lessons (Not) Learnt from the Financial Crisis," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(9), pages 1-19, September.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Modeling unconventional monetary policy; Quantitative easing; 10-Year treasury; Unemployment; Labor market; The Covid-19 pandemic and the Fed;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - General
    • C45 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Neural Networks and Related Topics
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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