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Modeling commuter modal shift from car trips to cycling: Scenario construction and outcomes for Stockholm, Sweden

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  • Strömgren, Magnus
  • Schantz, Peter
  • Sommar, Johan Nilsson
  • Raza, Wasif
  • Markstedt, Anders
  • Forsberg, Bertil

Abstract

This article presents the construction and outcomes of scenarios modeling commuter modal shift from car trips to cycling in the metropolitan region of Stockholm, the capital of Sweden. Building and improving upon previous studies in terms of both methodological approach and degree of spatial resolution of the modeling output, we examine scenarios where car commuters able to reach their workplace within 30 and 50 minutes of cycling shift commuting mode. Overall, car–bicycle modal shift figures were 31.6% and 48.7%, respectively. However, there were considerable geographical differences. While a substantial number of new bicycle commuters appeared in all five macro-level subdivisions of the study area, relative modal shift was by far the highest among car commuters living in the Inner City and its immediate surroundings.

Suggested Citation

  • Strömgren, Magnus & Schantz, Peter & Sommar, Johan Nilsson & Raza, Wasif & Markstedt, Anders & Forsberg, Bertil, 2020. "Modeling commuter modal shift from car trips to cycling: Scenario construction and outcomes for Stockholm, Sweden," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jotrge:v:86:y:2020:i:c:s0966692319305447
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2020.102740
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. Jonsson, Daniel & Berglund, Svante & Almström, Peter & Algers, Staffan, 2011. "The Usefulness of Transport Models in Swedish Planning Practice," Working papers in Transport Economics 2011:20, CTS - Centre for Transport Studies Stockholm (KTH and VTI), revised 14 Dec 2011.
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    Keywords

    Cycling; Modal shift; Commuting;
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