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Identifying speculators in the FX market: A microstructure approach

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  • Schreiber, Ben Z.

Abstract

This paper suggests a methodology for identifying speculators in FX (foreign exchange) markets. A player is identified as a speculator only if his speculative characteristics are extreme compared with those of other players and his influence on exchange rates on outlying days is significant. Implementing the proposed methodology on Israel's FX market, which includes 366 large players, identified 58 potential speculators – almost all of them nonresident entities, local banks, and financial companies. Examining their activity based on a unique dataset for 2008–09 revealed speculators that purchased foreign currency before and/or on outlying depreciation days and sold foreign currency before and/or on outlying appreciation days. Thus, some speculators joined or initiated the trend before the outlying appreciation or depreciation days. Based on these speculators found during 2008–09, it was possible to identify similar behavior before and on outlying days during 2010, which was defined as an out-of-sample period. The proposed methodology may help market makers and regulators track speculators before and on outlying days.

Suggested Citation

  • Schreiber, Ben Z., 2014. "Identifying speculators in the FX market: A microstructure approach," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 97-119.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jebusi:v:73:y:2014:i:c:p:97-119
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jeconbus.2014.02.001
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Melvin, Michael & Taylor, Mark P., 2009. "The crisis in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(8), pages 1317-1330, December.
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    4. Moore, Michael J. & Payne, Richard, 2011. "On the sources of private information in FX markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 1250-1262, May.
    5. Menkhoff, Lukas & Schmeling, Maik, 2010. "Whose trades convey information? Evidence from a cross-section of traders," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 101-128, February.
    6. Carol L. Osler, 2006. "Macro lessons from microstructure," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(1), pages 55-80.
    7. Chang, Chuang-Chang & Hsieh, Pei-Fang & Lai, Hung-Neng, 2009. "Do informed option investors predict stock returns? Evidence from the Taiwan stock exchange," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 757-764, April.
    8. Dan Galai & Ben Z. Schreiber, 2013. "Bid–Ask Spreads and Implied Volatilities of Key Players in a FX Options Market," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(8), pages 774-794, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Cheng, Lian & Luo, Junru & Liu, Lin, 2018. "Is Renminbi a (Truly) International Currency? An Evaluation Based on Offshore Foreign Exchange Market Trading Patterns," MPRA Paper 89279, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Wang, Xi & Yang, Jiao-Hui & Wang, Kai-Li & Fawson, Christopher, 2017. "Dynamic information spillovers in intraregionally-focused spot and forward currency markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 78-110.
    3. Piccotti, Louis R. & Schreiber, Ben Z., 2015. "Information shares of two parallel currency options markets: Trading costs versus transparency/tradability," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 210-229.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Foreign exchange markets; Microstructure; Speculation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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