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Robust backward population projections made possible

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  • Ediev, Dalkhat M.
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    Abstract

    Based on formal results for population dynamics under varying fertility and mortality levels, this paper presents a new approach to backward population projection. Unlike other methods in the literature, the method presented here is robust and accurate in both the short and long run. The method and the theory behind it contribute to the knowledge about dynamic populations and may find applications in population modeling and reconstruction.

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    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169207011000136
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal International Journal of Forecasting.

    Volume (Year): 27 (2011)
    Issue (Month): 4 (October)
    Pages: 1241-1247

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:27:y:2011:i:4:p:1241-1247

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    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ijforecast

    Related research

    Keywords: Backward population projection Back projection Inverse projection Population dynamics Ergodic property Reproductive value Demographic potential Dynamically stable population Historical demography;

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    1. Ansley Coale & A. John & Toni Richards, 1985. "Calculation of age-specific fertility schedules from tabulations of parity in two censuses," Demography, Springer, vol. 22(4), pages 611-623, November.
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