A system of model fertility schedules with graphically intuitive parameters
AbstractI propose and examine a new family of models for age-specific fertility schedules, in which three index ages determine the schedule's shape. The new system is based on constrained quadratic splines. It has easily interpretable parameters, is flexible enough to fit a variety of "noiseless" schedules well, and is inflexible enough to avoid implausible estimates from noisy data. Across a set of over two hundred contemporary ASFR schedules, the new model fits a majority better, and in some cases much better, than the Coale-Trussell model. When fit to a recent Swedish time series, model parameters exhibit simple, regular changes over time, suggesting utility in forecasting applications. In simulated small-sample data the new model produces plausible ASFR estimates, with errors similar to Coale-Trussell.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany in its journal Demographic Research.
Volume (Year): 9 (2003)
Issue (Month): 5 (October)
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Web page: http://www.demogr.mpg.de/
age-specific fertility; age-specific rates; Coale-Trussell; estimation; fertility; models; splines;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
- Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General
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- Mikko Myrskylä & Joshua R. Goldstein & Yen-hsin Alice Cheng, 2012. "New cohort fertility forecasts for the developed world," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2012-014, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
- Ezra Gayawan & Samson Adebayo & Reuben A. Ipinyomi & Benjamin Oyejola, 2010. "Modeling fertility curves in Africa," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 22(10), pages 211-236, February.
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