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Copula approaches for modeling cross-sectional dependence of data breach losses

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  • Eling, Martin
  • Jung, Kwangmin

Abstract

Many experts claim that cyber risks are correlated, but there is not much supporting empirical evidence. We consider 3327 data breach events from 2005 to 2016 and identify a significant asymmetric dependence of monthly losses in two cross-sectional settings: cross-industry losses in four categories by breach types (hacking, lost electronic device, unintended disclosure and insider breach) and cross-breach type losses in five categories by industries (banking and insurance, government, medical service, retail/other business and educational institution). To identify the method that best fits the dependence structure of the dataset, we implement copula modeling by separating the dependence into pairwise non-zero losses and zero loss arrivals. We model the former by pair copula construction (PCC) allowing for the flexible choice of copula functions, whereas the latter is modeled by Gaussian copula. We illustrate the usefulness of our results in two applications to risk measurement and pricing. Our findings are important for risk managers and actuaries who are designing cyber-insurance policies.

Suggested Citation

  • Eling, Martin & Jung, Kwangmin, 2018. "Copula approaches for modeling cross-sectional dependence of data breach losses," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 167-180.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:insuma:v:82:y:2018:i:c:p:167-180
    DOI: 10.1016/j.insmatheco.2018.07.003
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    5. Malavasi, Matteo & Peters, Gareth W. & Shevchenko, Pavel V. & Trück, Stefan & Jang, Jiwook & Sofronov, Georgy, 2022. "Cyber risk frequency, severity and insurance viability," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 90-114.
    6. Gareth W. Peters & Matteo Malavasi & Georgy Sofronov & Pavel V. Shevchenko & Stefan Trück & Jiwook Jang, 2023. "Cyber loss model risk translates to premium mispricing and risk sensitivity," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, Palgrave Macmillan;The Geneva Association, vol. 48(2), pages 372-433, April.
    7. Jiang, Cuixia & Li, Yuqian & Xu, Qifa & Liu, Yezheng, 2021. "Measuring risk spillovers from multiple developed stock markets to China: A vine-copula-GARCH-MIDAS model," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 386-398.
    8. Kerstin Awiszus & Thomas Knispel & Irina Penner & Gregor Svindland & Alexander Vo{ss} & Stefan Weber, 2022. "Modeling and Pricing Cyber Insurance -- Idiosyncratic, Systematic, and Systemic Risks," Papers 2209.07415, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2022.
    9. Benjamin Avanzi & Xingyun Tan & Greg Taylor & Bernard Wong, 2023. "Cyber Insurance Risk: Reporting Delays, Third-Party Cyber Events, and Changes in Reporting Propensity -- An Analysis Using Data Breaches Published by U.S. State Attorneys General," Papers 2310.04786, arXiv.org.
    10. Eling, Martin & Jung, Kwangmin, 2020. "Risk aggregation in non-life insurance: Standard models vs. internal models," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 183-198.
    11. Daniel Zängerle & Dirk Schiereck, 2023. "Modelling and predicting enterprise-level cyber risks in the context of sparse data availability," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, Palgrave Macmillan;The Geneva Association, vol. 48(2), pages 434-462, April.
    12. Matteo Malavasi & Gareth W. Peters & Pavel V. Shevchenko & Stefan Truck & Jiwook Jang & Georgy Sofronov, 2021. "Cyber Risk Frequency, Severity and Insurance Viability," Papers 2111.03366, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2022.
    13. Da, Gaofeng & Xu, Maochao & Zhao, Peng, 2021. "Multivariate dependence among cyber risks based on L-hop propagation," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(PB), pages 525-546.
    14. Kim, Sojung & Weber, Stefan, 2022. "Simulation methods for robust risk assessment and the distorted mix approach," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 298(1), pages 380-398.
    15. Eric Dal Moro, 2020. "Towards an Economic Cyber Loss Index for Parametric Cover Based on IT Security Indicator: A Preliminary Analysis," Risks, MDPI, vol. 8(2), pages 1-12, May.
    16. Gabriela Zeller & Matthias Scherer, 2023. "Risk mitigation services in cyber insurance: optimal contract design and price structure," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, Palgrave Macmillan;The Geneva Association, vol. 48(2), pages 502-547, April.
    17. Jevtić, Petar & Lanchier, Nicolas, 2020. "Dynamic structural percolation model of loss distribution for cyber risk of small and medium-sized enterprises for tree-based LAN topology," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 209-223.
    18. Wing Fung Chong & Runhuan Feng & Hins Hu & Linfeng Zhang, 2022. "Cyber Risk Assessment for Capital Management," Papers 2205.08435, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2023.
    19. Zängerle, Daniel & Schiereck, Dirk, 2022. "Modelling and predicting enterprise‑level cyber risks in the context of sparse data availability," Publications of Darmstadt Technical University, Institute for Business Studies (BWL) 136276, Darmstadt Technical University, Department of Business Administration, Economics and Law, Institute for Business Studies (BWL).
    20. Sojung Kim & Stefan Weber, 2020. "Simulation Methods for Robust Risk Assessment and the Distorted Mix Approach," Papers 2009.03653, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
    21. Yin-Yee Leong & Yen-Chih Chen, 0. "Cyber risk cost and management in IoT devices-linked health insurance," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, Palgrave Macmillan;The Geneva Association, vol. 0, pages 1-23.
    22. Albina Orlando, 2021. "Cyber Risk Quantification: Investigating the Role of Cyber Value at Risk," Risks, MDPI, vol. 9(10), pages 1-12, October.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Cyber risk; Data breach; Zero-inflated data; Pair copula construction; Vine copula; Risk measurement; Insurance pricing; Diversification effect;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • C46 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Specific Distributions
    • G22 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Insurance; Insurance Companies; Actuarial Studies

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