IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/insuma/v79y2018icp26-42.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

An IBNR–RBNS insurance risk model with marked Poisson arrivals

Author

Listed:
  • Ahn, Soohan
  • Badescu, Andrei L.
  • Cheung, Eric C.K.
  • Kim, Jeong-Rae

Abstract

Inspired by the claim reserving problem in non-life insurance, this paper proposes to study the insurer’s surplus process under a micro-level framework, with particular focus on modeling the Incurred But Not Reported (IBNR) and the Reported But Not Settled (RBNS) claims. It is assumed that accidents occur according to a Poisson point process, and each accident is accompanied by a claim developmental mark that contains the reporting time, the settlement time, and the size of (possibly multiple) payments between these two times. Under exponential reporting and settlement delays, we show that our model can be represented as a Markovian risk process with countably infinite number of states. This can in turn be transformed to an equivalent fluid flow model when the payments are phase-type distributed. As a result, classical measures such as ruin probability or more generally the Gerber–Shiu expected discounted penalty function follow directly. The joint Laplace transform and the pairwise joint moments involving the ruin time and the aggregate payments of different types (with and without claim settlement) are further derived. Numerical illustrations are given at the end, including the use of a real insurance dataset.

Suggested Citation

  • Ahn, Soohan & Badescu, Andrei L. & Cheung, Eric C.K. & Kim, Jeong-Rae, 2018. "An IBNR–RBNS insurance risk model with marked Poisson arrivals," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 26-42.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:insuma:v:79:y:2018:i:c:p:26-42
    DOI: 10.1016/j.insmatheco.2017.12.004
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0167668716301445
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.insmatheco.2017.12.004?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hans Gerber & Elias Shiu, 1998. "On the Time Value of Ruin," North American Actuarial Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(1), pages 48-72.
    2. Feng, Runhuan & Shimizu, Yasutaka, 2014. "Potential measures for spectrally negative Markov additive processes with applications in ruin theory," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 11-26.
    3. Andrei Badescu & David Landriault, 2008. "Recursive Calculation of the Dividend Moments in a Multi-threshold Risk Model," North American Actuarial Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(1), pages 74-88.
    4. Trufin, Julien & Albrecher, Hansjorg & Denuit, Michel, 2011. "Ruin problems under IBNR dynamics," LIDAM Reprints ISBA 2011045, Université catholique de Louvain, Institute of Statistics, Biostatistics and Actuarial Sciences (ISBA).
    5. Eric C.K. Cheung & Haibo Liu & Jae-Kyung Woo, 2015. "On the Joint Analysis of the Total Discounted Payments to Policyholders and Shareholders: Dividend Barrier Strategy," Risks, MDPI, vol. 3(4), pages 1-24, November.
    6. Waters, Howard R. & Papatriandafylou, Alex, 1985. "Ruin probabilities allowing for delay in claims settlement," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 113-122, April.
    7. Ahn, Soohan & Badescu, Andrei L., 2007. "On the analysis of the Gerber-Shiu discounted penalty function for risk processes with Markovian arrivals," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 234-249, September.
    8. Bean, Nigel G. & O'Reilly, Malgorzata M. & Taylor, Peter G., 2005. "Hitting probabilities and hitting times for stochastic fluid flows," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 115(9), pages 1530-1556, September.
    9. V. Ramaswami, 2006. "Passage Times in Fluid Models with Application to Risk Processes," Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, Springer, vol. 8(4), pages 497-515, December.
    10. Cheung, Eric C.K. & Feng, Runhuan, 2013. "A unified analysis of claim costs up to ruin in a Markovian arrival risk model," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 98-109.
    11. Jewell, William S., 1989. "Predicting Ibnyr Events and Delays: I. Continuous Time," ASTIN Bulletin, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(1), pages 25-55, April.
    12. Norberg, Ragnar, 1993. "Prediction of Outstanding Liabilities in Non-Life Insurance1," ASTIN Bulletin, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(1), pages 95-115, May.
    13. Huynh, Mirabelle & Landriault, David & Shi, Tianxiang & Willmot, Gordon E., 2015. "On a risk model with claim investigation," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 37-45.
    14. Arjas, Elja, 1989. "The Claims Reserving Problem in Non-Life Insurance: Some Structural Ideas," ASTIN Bulletin, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(2), pages 139-152, November.
    15. Macci, Claudio & Torrisi, Giovanni Luca, 2004. "Asymptotic results for perturbed risk processes with delayed claims," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 307-320, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. He, Yue & Kawai, Reiichiro & Shimizu, Yasutaka & Yamazaki, Kazutoshi, 2023. "The Gerber-Shiu discounted penalty function: A review from practical perspectives," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 1-28.
    2. Zhimin Zhang & Eric C. K. Cheung, 2016. "The Markov Additive Risk Process Under an Erlangized Dividend Barrier Strategy," Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, Springer, vol. 18(2), pages 275-306, June.
    3. Francis Duval & Mathieu Pigeon, 2019. "Individual Loss Reserving Using a Gradient Boosting-Based Approach," Risks, MDPI, vol. 7(3), pages 1-18, July.
    4. Cheung, Eric C.K. & Landriault, David, 2010. "A generalized penalty function with the maximum surplus prior to ruin in a MAP risk model," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 127-134, February.
    5. Jae-Kyung Woo & Haibo Liu, 2018. "Discounted Aggregate Claim Costs Until Ruin in the Discrete-Time Renewal Risk Model," Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, Springer, vol. 20(4), pages 1285-1318, December.
    6. Richard J. Verrall & Mario V. Wüthrich, 2016. "Understanding Reporting Delay in General Insurance," Risks, MDPI, vol. 4(3), pages 1-36, July.
    7. Cheung, Eric C.K., 2013. "Moments of discounted aggregate claim costs until ruin in a Sparre Andersen risk model with general interclaim times," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(2), pages 343-354.
    8. A. S. Dibu & M. J. Jacob & Apostolos D. Papaioannou & Lewis Ramsden, 2021. "Delayed Capital Injections for a Risk Process with Markovian Arrivals," Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 1057-1076, September.
    9. Mat'uv{s} Maciak & Ostap Okhrin & Michal Pev{s}ta, 2019. "Infinitely Stochastic Micro Forecasting," Papers 1908.10636, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2019.
    10. Mat'uv{s} Maciak & Ostap Okhrin & Michal Pev{s}ta, 2018. "Dynamic and granular loss reserving with copulae," Papers 1801.01792, arXiv.org.
    11. Arthur Charpentier & Mathieu Pigeon, 2016. "Macro vs. Micro Methods in Non-Life Claims Reserving (an Econometric Perspective)," Risks, MDPI, vol. 4(2), pages 1-18, May.
    12. Maciak, Matúš & Okhrin, Ostap & Pešta, Michal, 2021. "Infinitely stochastic micro reserving," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 30-58.
    13. Yue He & Reiichiro Kawai & Yasutaka Shimizu & Kazutoshi Yamazaki, 2022. "The Gerber-Shiu discounted penalty function: A review from practical perspectives," Papers 2203.10680, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2022.
    14. Lingjiong Zhu, 2023. "A delayed dual risk model," Papers 2301.06450, arXiv.org.
    15. Muneya Matsui, 2017. "Prediction of Components in Random Sums," Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, Springer, vol. 19(2), pages 573-587, June.
    16. Macci, Claudio & Torrisi, Giovanni Luca, 2004. "Asymptotic results for perturbed risk processes with delayed claims," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 307-320, April.
    17. Cheung, Eric C.K. & Feng, Runhuan, 2013. "A unified analysis of claim costs up to ruin in a Markovian arrival risk model," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 98-109.
    18. Huang, Jinlong & Qiu, Chunjuan & Wu, Xianyi & Zhou, Xian, 2015. "An individual loss reserving model with independent reporting and settlement," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 232-245.
    19. Franck Adékambi & Essodina Takouda, 2020. "Gerber–Shiu Function in a Class of Delayed and Perturbed Risk Model with Dependence," Risks, MDPI, vol. 8(1), pages 1-25, March.
    20. Avanzi, Benjamin & Taylor, Greg & Wong, Bernard & Yang, Xinda, 2021. "On the modelling of multivariate counts with Cox processes and dependent shot noise intensities," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 9-24.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:insuma:v:79:y:2018:i:c:p:26-42. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505554 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.