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Longevity risk and the Grim Reaper's toxic tail: The survivor fan charts

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  • Blake, David
  • Dowd, Kevin
  • Cairns, Andrew J.G.

Abstract

This paper uses survivor fan charts to illustrate the prospective density functions of future male survival rates. The fan charts are based on a version of the Cairns-Blake-Dowd model of male mortality that provides a good fit to recent mortality data for England and Wales. They indicate that although none of us can escape the Grim Reaper, survivorship uncertainty is greatest for males aged a little over 90, confirming that there exists a [`]toxic tail' for those institutions, such as annuity and pension providers, which are obliged to make payments to them for as long as they live. We also find that taking account of uncertainty in the parameters of the underlying mortality model leads to major increases in estimates of the widths of the fan charts.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Insurance: Mathematics and Economics.

Volume (Year): 42 (2008)
Issue (Month): 3 (June)
Pages: 1062-1066

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Handle: RePEc:eee:insuma:v:42:y:2008:i:3:p:1062-1066

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505554

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References

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  1. Olivieri, Annamaria, 2001. "Uncertainty in mortality projections: an actuarial perspective," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 231-245, October.
  2. Renshaw, A.E. & Haberman, S., 2008. "On simulation-based approaches to risk measurement in mortality with specific reference to Poisson Lee-Carter modelling," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 797-816, April.
  3. Andrew J. G. Cairns & David Blake & Kevin Dowd, 2006. "A Two-Factor Model for Stochastic Mortality with Parameter Uncertainty: Theory and Calibration," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 73(4), pages 687-718.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Blake, David & Courbage, Christophe & MacMinn, Richard & Sherris, Michael, 2011. "Longevity risks and capital markets: The 2010-2011 update," MPRA Paper 34279, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Li, J.S.H. & Ng, A.C.Y. & Chan, W.S., 2013. "Stochastic life table forecasting: A time-simultaneous fan chart application," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 98-107.
  3. Blake, David & Boardman, Tom & Cairns, Andrew, 2010. "Sharing longevity risk: Why governments should issue longevity bonds," MPRA Paper 34184, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Blake, David & Brockett, Patrick & Cox, Samuel & MacMinn, Richard, 2011. "Longevity risk and capital markets: The 2009-2010 update," MPRA Paper 28868, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. Bohm, Thomas & Waldvogel, Felix, 2012. "Etablierung eines außerbörslichen Kapitalmarktes für das Langlebigkeitsrisiko," Bayreuth Working Papers on Finance, Accounting and Taxation (FAcT-Papers) 2012-02, University of Bayreuth, Chair of Finance and Banking.
  6. Tomas Cipra, 2010. "Securitization of Longevity and Mortality Risk," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 60(6), pages 545-560, December.
  7. Blake, David & Cairns, Andrew & Dowd, Kevin, 2008. "Turning pension plans into pension planes: What investment strategy designers of defined contribution pension plans can learn from commercial aircraft designers," MPRA Paper 33749, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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