Longevity risk and the Grim Reaper's toxic tail: The survivor fan charts
AbstractThisÂ paper uses survivor fan charts to illustrate the prospective density functions of future male survival rates. The fan charts are based on a version of the Cairns-Blake-Dowd model of male mortality that provides a good fit to recent mortality data for England and Wales. They indicate that although none of us can escape the Grim Reaper, survivorship uncertainty is greatest for males aged a little over 90, confirming that there exists a [`]toxic tail' for those institutions, such as annuity and pension providers, which are obliged to make payments to them for as long as they live. We also find that taking account of uncertainty in the parameters of the underlying mortality model leads to major increases in estimates of the widths of the fan charts.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal Insurance: Mathematics and Economics.
Volume (Year): 42 (2008)
Issue (Month): 3 (June)
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505554
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Olivieri, Annamaria, 2001. "Uncertainty in mortality projections: an actuarial perspective," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 231-245, October.
- Tom Boardman, 2006. "Annuitization Lessons from the UK: Money-Back Annuities and Other Developments," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 73(4), pages 633-646.
- Andrew J. G. Cairns & David Blake & Kevin Dowd, 2006. "A Two-Factor Model for Stochastic Mortality with Parameter Uncertainty: Theory and Calibration," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 73(4), pages 687-718.
- Renshaw, A.E. & Haberman, S., 2008. "On simulation-based approaches to risk measurement in mortality with specific reference to Poisson Lee-Carter modelling," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 797-816, April.
- Tomas Cipra, 2010. "Securitization of Longevity and Mortality Risk," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 60(6), pages 545-560, December.
- Yang, Sharon S. & Wang, Chou-Wen, 2013. "Pricing and securitization of multi-country longevity risk with mortality dependence," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 157-169.
- Blake, David & Boardman, Tom & Cairns, Andrew, 2010. "Sharing longevity risk: Why governments should issue longevity bonds," MPRA Paper 34184, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Blake, David & Courbage, Christophe & MacMinn, Richard & Sherris, Michael, 2011.
"Longevity risks and capital markets: The 2010-2011 update,"
34279, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- David Blake & Christophe Courbage & Richard MacMinn & Michael Sherris, 2011. "Longevity Risk and Capital Markets: The 2010–2011 Update," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 36(4), pages 489-500, October.
- Lin, Tzuling & Tzeng, Larry Y., 2010. "An additive stochastic model of mortality rates: An application to longevity risk in reserve evaluation," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 423-435, April.
- Blake, David & Cairns, Andrew & Dowd, Kevin, 2008. "Turning pension plans into pension planes: What investment strategy designers of defined contribution pension plans can learn from commercial aircraft designers," MPRA Paper 33749, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Li, J.S.H. & Ng, A.C.Y. & Chan, W.S., 2013. "Stochastic life table forecasting: A time-simultaneous fan chart application," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 98-107.
- Kogure, Atsuyuki & Kurachi, Yoshiyuki, 2010. "A Bayesian approach to pricing longevity risk based on risk-neutral predictive distributions," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 162-172, February.
- Bohm, Thomas & Waldvogel, Felix, 2012. "Etablierung eines außerbörslichen Kapitalmarktes für das Langlebigkeitsrisiko," Bayreuth Working Papers on Finance, Accounting and Taxation (FAcT-Papers) 2012-02, University of Bayreuth, Chair of Finance and Banking.
- Li, Johnny Siu-Hang & Chan, Wai-Sum, 2011. "Time-simultaneous prediction bands: A new look at the uncertainty involved in forecasting mortality," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 81-88, July.
- Blake, David & Brockett, Patrick & Cox, Samuel & MacMinn, Richard, 2011. "Longevity risk and capital markets: The 2009-2010 update," MPRA Paper 28868, University Library of Munich, Germany.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.