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Hirsch's h-index: A stochastic model

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  • Burrell, Quentin L.

Abstract

We propose a simple stochastic model for an author's production/citation process in order to investigate the recently proposed h-index for measuring an author's research output and its impact. The parametric model distinguishes between an author's publication process and the subsequent citation processes of the published papers. This allows us to investigate different scenarios such as varying the production/publication rates and citation rates as well as the researcher's career length. We are able to draw tentative results regarding the dependence of Hirsch's h-index on each of these fundamental parameters. We conjecture that the h-index is, according to this model, (approximately) linear in career length, log publication rate and log citation rate, at least for moderate citation rates.

Suggested Citation

  • Burrell, Quentin L., 2007. "Hirsch's h-index: A stochastic model," Journal of Informetrics, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 16-25.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:infome:v:1:y:2007:i:1:p:16-25
    DOI: 10.1016/j.joi.2006.07.001
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Philip Ball, 2005. "Index aims for fair ranking of scientists," Nature, Nature, vol. 436(7053), pages 900-900, August.
    2. Quentin L. Burrell, 2003. "Predicting future citation behavior," Journal of the American Society for Information Science and Technology, Association for Information Science & Technology, vol. 54(5), pages 372-378, March.
    3. Anthony F. J. Raan, 2006. "Comparison of the Hirsch-index with standard bibliometric indicators and with peer judgment for 147 chemistry research groups," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 67(3), pages 491-502, June.
    4. Quentin L. Burrell, 2002. "Will this paper ever be cited?," Journal of the American Society for Information Science and Technology, Association for Information Science & Technology, vol. 53(3), pages 232-235.
    5. Stirzaker, David, 2005. "Stochastic Processes and Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198568148.
    6. Lutz Bornmann & Hans-Dieter Daniel, 2005. "Does the h-index for ranking of scientists really work?," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 65(3), pages 391-392, December.
    7. Quentin L. Burrell, 2002. "The nth-citation distribution and obsolescence," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 53(3), pages 309-323, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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