Blame the models
AbstractThe quality of statistical risk models is much lower than often assumed. Such models are useful for measuring the risk of frequent small events, such as in internal risk management, but not for systemically important events. Unfortunately, it is common to see unrealistic demands placed on risk models. Having a number representing risk seems to be more important than having a number which is correct. Here, it is demonstrated that even in what may be the easiest and most reliable modeling exercise, value-at-risk forecasts from the most commonly used risk models provide very inconsistent results.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Financial Stability.
Volume (Year): 4 (2008)
Issue (Month): 4 (December)
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jfstabil
Value-at-risk Risk models Credit rating Endogenous risk Regulation by models;
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Jon Danielsson, 2000.
"The Emperor has no Clothes: Limits to Risk Modelling,"
FMG Special Papers
sp126, Financial Markets Group.
- Danielsson, Jon, 2002. "The emperor has no clothes: Limits to risk modelling," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(7), pages 1273-1296, July.
- Claudio Borio & Mathias Drehmann, 2011.
"Toward an Operational Framework for Financial Stability: “Fuzzy” Measurement and Its Consequences,"
Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series,
in: Rodrigo Alfaro (ed.), Financial Stability, Monetary Policy, and Central Banking, edition 1, volume 15, chapter 4, pages 063-123
Central Bank of Chile.
- Claudio Borio & Mathias Drehmann, 2009. "Towards an Operational Framework for Financial Stability: "Fuzzy" Measurement and its Consequences," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 544, Central Bank of Chile.
- Claudio Borio & Claudio Mathias Drehmann, 2009. "Towards an operational framework for financial stability: "fuzzy" measurement and its consequences," BIS Working Papers 284, Bank for International Settlements.
- Mario Tonveronachi & Elisabetta Montanaro, 2009. "Some preliminary proposals for re-regulating financial systems," Department of Economics University of Siena 553, Department of Economics, University of Siena.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.