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European business cycles and stock return predictability

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  • Zhu, Yanjian
  • Zhu, Xiaoneng

Abstract

This paper finds that the European leading economic indicator, a prime business cycle indicator for the European economies published by the OECD, can strongly predict European stock returns and generate utility gains. Importantly, the predictive power of the European indicator is above and beyond that contained in the country-specific leading indicator. Furthermore, we find that the predictive power of the European indicator is stable.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhu, Yanjian & Zhu, Xiaoneng, 2014. "European business cycles and stock return predictability," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 446-453.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:11:y:2014:i:4:p:446-453
    DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2014.10.002
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    Cited by:

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    2. Long, Huaigang & Zaremba, Adam & Zhou, Wenyu & Bouri, Elie, 2022. "Macroeconomics matter: Leading economic indicators and the cross-section of global stock returns," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    3. Si, Deng-Kui & Liu, Xi-Hua & Kong, Xianli, 2019. "The comovement and causality between stock market cycle and business cycle in China: Evidence from a wavelet analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 17-30.
    4. Shi, Guangping & Liu, Xiaoxing, 2020. "Stock price fluctuation and the business cycle in the BRICS countries: A nonparametric quantiles causality approach," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 33(C).
    5. Ahmad, Wasim & Sharma, Sumit Kumar, 2018. "Testing output gap and economic uncertainty as an explicator of stock market returns," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 293-306.
    6. Yaojie Zhang & Feng Ma & Chao Liang & Yi Zhang, 2021. "Good variance, bad variance, and stock return predictability," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(3), pages 4410-4423, July.
    7. Xiao-Lin Li & Yi-Na Li & Lu Bai, 2019. "Stock Market Cycle and Business Cycle in China: Evidence from a Bootstrap Rolling Window Approach," Review of Economics & Finance, Better Advances Press, Canada, vol. 17, pages 35-50, August.
    8. Mohammadi, H. & Abolhasani, L. & Shahnoushi, N. & Shabanian, F., 2018. "The effects of business cycle indicators on stock market indices of food industry in Iran," 2018 Conference, July 28-August 2, 2018, Vancouver, British Columbia 277425, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    9. Yang, Liuyong & Long, Yijia & Long, Huaigang & Zaremba, Adam & Zhou, Wenyu, 2022. "Is tail risk priced in the cross-section of Chinese mutual fund returns?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Stock returns; Economic value; European business cycles; Return predictability;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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