IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/finana/v17y2008i5p820-837.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Nonstationarity of efficient finance markets: FX market evolution from stability to instability

Author

Listed:
  • McCauley, Joseph L.

Abstract

Real financial markets are uncertain on the shortest trading time scales, therefore trading translates into noise. We discuss the pair correlations of detrended returns necessary to understand financial markets. Efficient markets and equilibrium markets generate conflicting pair correlations. B. Eichengreen [B. Eichengreen, Globalizing Capital,: A History of the International Monetary System, Princeton, Princeton, 1998] argues that FX speculation was stabilizing before WWI. In contrast, our recent empirical analysis shows that we can model FX markets in our present era as nonstationary/unstable and efficient (meaning hard or impossible to beat). We can model pre-WWI non-efficient equilibrium FX dynamics from a closely related theoretical standpoint. Our main points are that deregulated markets are described by a nonstationary process with uncorrelated, nonstationary increments, and that a stationary market (equilibrium market) is mutually exclusive with an unregulated, efficient market. In short, stability and deregulation are mutually exclusive ideas. We review a simple, empirically deduced model of the unstable diffusive nature of volatile FX market dynamics. All information of interest is encoded in the variable diffusion coefficient defining the observed martingale process.

Suggested Citation

  • McCauley, Joseph L., 2008. "Nonstationarity of efficient finance markets: FX market evolution from stability to instability," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 17(5), pages 820-837, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finana:v:17:y:2008:i:5:p:820-837
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1057-5219(08)00004-5
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bassler, Kevin E. & Gunaratne, Gemunu H. & McCauley, Joseph L., 2008. "Empirically based modeling in financial economics and beyond, and spurious stylized facts," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 17(5), pages 767-783, December.
    2. McCauley, Joseph L. & Bassler, Kevin E. & Gunaratne, Gemunu H., 2008. "Martingales, detrending data, and the efficient market hypothesis," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 387(1), pages 202-216.
    3. Bassler, Kevin E. & McCauley, Joseph L. & Gunaratne, Gemunu H., 2006. "Nonstationary increments, scaling distributions, and variable diffusion processes in financial markets," MPRA Paper 2126, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ioan Roxana, 2020. "Capital Market Correlations Structure During The Covid-19 Crisis," Annals - Economy Series, Constantin Brancusi University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 6, pages 67-79, December.
    2. Troy Tassier, 2013. "Handbook of Research on Complexity, by J. Barkley Rosser, Jr. and Edward Elgar," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 39(1), pages 132-133.
    3. McCauley, Joseph L., 2008. "Time vs. ensemble averages for nonstationary time series," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 387(22), pages 5518-5522.
    4. Victor M. Yakovenko & J. Barkley Rosser, 2009. "Colloquium: Statistical mechanics of money, wealth, and income," Papers 0905.1518, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2009.
    5. Antonio Doria, Francisco, 2011. "J.B. Rosser Jr. , Handbook of Research on Complexity, Edward Elgar, Cheltenham, UK--Northampton, MA, USA (2009) 436 + viii pp., index, ISBN 978 1 84542 089 5 (cased)," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 78(1-2), pages 196-204, April.
    6. Al-Khazali, Osamah M. & Leduc, Guillaume & Pyun, Chong Soo, 2011. "Market efficiency of floating exchange rate systems: Some evidence from Pacific-Asian countries," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 154-168.
    7. McCauley, Joseph L. & Bassler, Kevin E. & Gunaratne, Gemunu H., 2009. "Is integration I(d) applicable to observed economics and finance time series?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 101-108, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. McCauley, Joseph L., 2008. "Time vs. ensemble averages for nonstationary time series," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 387(22), pages 5518-5522.
    2. McCauley, Joseph L., 2009. "ARCH and GARCH models vs. martingale volatility of finance market returns," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 151-153, September.
    3. Hua, Jia-Chen & Chen, Lijian & Falcon, Liberty & McCauley, Joseph L. & Gunaratne, Gemunu H., 2015. "Variable diffusion in stock market fluctuations," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 419(C), pages 221-233.
    4. McCauley, Joseph L. & Bassler, Kevin E. & Gunaratne, Gemunu H., 2008. "Martingales, nonstationary increments, and the efficient market hypothesis," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 387(15), pages 3916-3920.
    5. McCauley, Joseph L. & Bassler, Kevin E. & Gunaratne, Gemunu H., 2009. "Is integration I(d) applicable to observed economics and finance time series?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 101-108, June.
    6. Seemann, Lars & Hua, Jia-Chen & McCauley, Joseph L. & Gunaratne, Gemunu H., 2012. "Ensemble vs. time averages in financial time series analysis," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 391(23), pages 6024-6032.
    7. Sensoy, Ahmet & Tabak, Benjamin M., 2016. "Dynamic efficiency of stock markets and exchange rates," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 353-371.
    8. Bassler, Kevin E. & Gunaratne, Gemunu H. & McCauley, Joseph L., 2008. "Empirically based modeling in financial economics and beyond, and spurious stylized facts," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 17(5), pages 767-783, December.
    9. Kerry W. Fendick, 2013. "Pricing and Hedging Derivative Securities with Unknown Local Volatilities," Papers 1309.6164, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2013.
    10. McCauley, J.L. & Gunaratne, G.H. & Bassler, K.E., 2007. "Martingale option pricing," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 380(C), pages 351-356.
    11. Jovanovic, Franck & Schinckus, Christophe, 2017. "Econophysics and Financial Economics: An Emerging Dialogue," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780190205034.
    12. Bian, Siyu & Serra, Teresa & Garcia, Philip & Irwin, Scott, 2022. "New evidence on market response to public announcements in the presence of microstructure noise," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 298(2), pages 785-800.
    13. F. Baldovin & F. Camana & M. Caporin & M. Caraglio & A.L. Stella, 2015. "Ensemble properties of high-frequency data and intraday trading rules," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(2), pages 231-245, February.
    14. Hua, Jia-Chen & Roy, Sukesh & McCauley, Joseph L. & Gunaratne, Gemunu H., 2016. "Using dynamic mode decomposition to extract cyclic behavior in the stock market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 448(C), pages 172-180.
    15. Seemann, Lars & McCauley, Joseph L. & Gunaratne, Gemunu H., 2011. "Intraday volatility and scaling in high frequency foreign exchange markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 121-126, June.
    16. Troy Tassier, 2013. "Handbook of Research on Complexity, by J. Barkley Rosser, Jr. and Edward Elgar," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 39(1), pages 132-133.
    17. Natália Costa & César Silva & Paulo Ferreira, 2019. "Long-Range Behaviour and Correlation in DFA and DCCA Analysis of Cryptocurrencies," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 7(3), pages 1-12, September.
    18. Paulo Ferreira & Luís Carlos Loures, 2020. "An Econophysics Study of the S&P Global Clean Energy Index," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-9, January.
    19. Axel A. Araneda & Nils Bertschinger, 2020. "The sub-fractional CEV model," Papers 2001.06412, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2021.
    20. McCauley, Joseph L. & Bassler, Kevin E. & Gunaratne, Gemunu H., 2008. "Martingales, detrending data, and the efficient market hypothesis," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 387(1), pages 202-216.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:finana:v:17:y:2008:i:5:p:820-837. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620166 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.