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Uncertainty in well-to-tank with combustion greenhouse gas emissions of transportation fuels derived from North American crudes

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  • Di Lullo, Giovanni
  • Zhang, Hao
  • Kumar, Amit

Abstract

Many studies have calculated deterministic point estimates of well-to-combustion (WTC) emissions of transportation fuels from crude oil in an attempt to determine which crude oils have lower or higher emissions. However, there is considerable variation in the published results, resulting in uncertainty. The purpose of this study is to identify GHG emissions ranges for five conventional and two unconventional crudes by performing an uncertainty analysis using an improved version of the FUNdamental ENgineering PrinciplEs-based ModeL for Estimation of GreenHouse Gases (FUNNEL-GHG). Distributions for key inputs in the Monte Carlo simulation were determined based on values obtained from the literature. Eleven scenarios were developed, nine historical and two current, the former using life-long average production data from the oil fields studied and the latter using recent production data to illustrate how WTC emissions change as the fields age. The mean WTC emissions ranges for the eleven scenarios are 97.5–140 gCO2eq/MJ. The uncertainty in the WTC emissions ranges from ±3% to ±11%. The largest source of uncertainty in the WTC emissions is from the venting, fugitive, and flaring volumes, fluid injection rates, and refinery yields.

Suggested Citation

  • Di Lullo, Giovanni & Zhang, Hao & Kumar, Amit, 2017. "Uncertainty in well-to-tank with combustion greenhouse gas emissions of transportation fuels derived from North American crudes," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 475-486.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:128:y:2017:i:c:p:475-486
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2017.04.040
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Nimana, Balwinder & Canter, Christina & Kumar, Amit, 2015. "Energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions in upgrading and refining of Canada's oil sands products," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 65-79.
    2. Rahman, Md. Mustafizur & Canter, Christina & Kumar, Amit, 2015. "Well-to-wheel life cycle assessment of transportation fuels derived from different North American conventional crudes," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 156(C), pages 159-173.
    3. Rahman, Md Mustafizur & Canter, Christina & Kumar, Amit, 2014. "Greenhouse gas emissions from recovery of various North American conventional crudes," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 607-617.
    4. Di Lullo, Giovanni & Zhang, Hao & Kumar, Amit, 2016. "Evaluation of uncertainty in the well-to-tank and combustion greenhouse gas emissions of various transportation fuels," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 184(C), pages 413-426.
    5. Nimana, Balwinder & Canter, Christina & Kumar, Amit, 2015. "Energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions in the recovery and extraction of crude bitumen from Canada’s oil sands," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 143(C), pages 189-199.
    6. Nimana, Balwinder & Canter, Christina & Kumar, Amit, 2015. "Life cycle assessment of greenhouse gas emissions from Canada's oil sands-derived transportation fuels," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 544-554.
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    Cited by:

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