IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ejores/v286y2020i2p755-768.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Portfolio diversification based on stochastic dominance under incomplete probability information

Author

Listed:
  • Liesiö, Juuso
  • Xu, Peng
  • Kuosmanen, Timo

Abstract

Identifying efficient portfolio diversification strategies subject to stochastic dominance (SD) criteria usually assumes that the state-space of future asset returns can be captured by a fixed sample of equally probable historical returns. This paper relaxes this assumption by developing SD criteria under incomplete information on state probabilities. Specifically, we identify portfolios that dominate a given benchmark for any state probabilities in a given set. The proposed approach is applied to analyze if industrial diversification can be utilized to outperform the market portfolio. The results from this application demonstrate that the use of set-valued state probabilities can help to improve out-of-sample performance of SD-based portfolio optimization.

Suggested Citation

  • Liesiö, Juuso & Xu, Peng & Kuosmanen, Timo, 2020. "Portfolio diversification based on stochastic dominance under incomplete probability information," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 286(2), pages 755-768.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ejores:v:286:y:2020:i:2:p:755-768
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ejor.2020.03.042
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0377221720302563
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ejor.2020.03.042?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Janne Gustafsson & Ahti Salo, 2005. "Contingent Portfolio Programming for the Management of Risky Projects," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 53(6), pages 946-956, December.
    2. Russell Davidson & Jean-Yves Duclos, 2013. "Testing for Restricted Stochastic Dominance," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(1), pages 84-125, January.
    3. Herbert Moskowitz & Paul V. Preckel & Aynang Yang, 1993. "Decision Analysis with Incomplete Utility and Probability Information," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 41(5), pages 864-879, October.
    4. Kallio, Markku & Dehghan Hardoroudi, Nasim, 2019. "Advancements in stochastic dominance efficiency tests," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 276(2), pages 790-794.
    5. Thierry Post & Miloš Kopa, 2017. "Portfolio Choice Based on Third-Degree Stochastic Dominance," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 63(10), pages 3381-3392, October.
    6. Thierry Post, 2003. "Empirical Tests for Stochastic Dominance Efficiency," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(5), pages 1905-1932, October.
    7. Russell Davidson, 2009. "Testing for Restricted Stochastic Dominance: Some Further Results," Review of Economic Analysis, Digital Initiatives at the University of Waterloo Library, vol. 1(1), pages 34-59, September.
    8. Larry Y. Tzeng & Rachel J. Huang & Pai-Ta Shih, 2013. "Revisiting Almost Second-Degree Stochastic Dominance," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 59(5), pages 1250-1254, May.
    9. G. Hanoch & H. Levy, 1969. "The Efficiency Analysis of Choices Involving Risk," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 36(3), pages 335-346.
    10. Dupačová, Jitka & Kopa, Miloš, 2014. "Robustness of optimal portfolios under risk and stochastic dominance constraints," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 234(2), pages 434-441.
    11. Ng, Pin & Wong, Wing-Keung & Xiao, Zhijie, 2017. "Stochastic dominance via quantile regression with applications to investigate arbitrage opportunity and market efficiency," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 261(2), pages 666-678.
    12. Scaillet, Olivier & Topaloglou, Nikolas, 2010. "Testing for Stochastic Dominance Efficiency," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 28(1), pages 169-180.
    13. Thierry Post, 2003. "Empirical Tests for Stochastic Dominance Efficiency," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(5), pages 1905-1931, October.
    14. Thierry Post, 2017. "Empirical Tests for Stochastic Dominance Optimality," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 21(2), pages 793-810.
    15. Pearman, A. D. & Kmietowicz, Z. W., 1986. "Stochastic dominance with linear partial information," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 57-63, January.
    16. Tobias J. Moskowitz & Mark Grinblatt, 1999. "Do Industries Explain Momentum?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(4), pages 1249-1290, August.
    17. Post, Thierry & Karabatı, Selçuk & Arvanitis, Stelios, 2018. "Portfolio optimization based on stochastic dominance and empirical likelihood," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 206(1), pages 167-186.
    18. Levy, Haim & Hanoch, Giora, 1970. "Relative Effectiveness of Efficiency Criteria for Portfolio Selection," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 5(1), pages 63-76, March.
    19. Baptista, Susana & Barbosa-Póvoa, Ana Paula & Escudero, Laureano F. & Gomes, Maria Isabel & Pizarro, Celeste, 2019. "On risk management of a two-stage stochastic mixed 0–1 model for the closed-loop supply chain design problem," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 274(1), pages 91-107.
    20. Jiang, Yanping & Liang, Xia & Liang, Haiming & Yang, Ningman, 2018. "Multiple criteria decision making with interval stochastic variables: A method based on interval stochastic dominance," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 271(2), pages 632-643.
    21. Chris Starmer, 2000. "Developments in Non-expected Utility Theory: The Hunt for a Descriptive Theory of Choice under Risk," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 38(2), pages 332-382, June.
    22. Timo Kuosmanen, 2004. "Efficient Diversification According to Stochastic Dominance Criteria," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 50(10), pages 1390-1406, October.
    23. Iñaki R. Longarela, 2016. "A Characterization of the SSD-Efficient Frontier of Portfolio Weights by Means of a Set of Mixed-Integer Linear Constraints," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 62(12), pages 3549-3554, December.
    24. Harry Markowitz, 1952. "Portfolio Selection," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 7(1), pages 77-91, March.
    25. Oliver Linton & Thierry Post & Yoon‐Jae Whang, 2014. "Testing for the stochastic dominance efficiency of a given portfolio," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 17(2), pages 59-74, June.
    26. Gutjahr, Walter J., 2015. "Bi-Objective Multi-Mode Project Scheduling Under Risk Aversion," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 246(2), pages 421-434.
    27. Keppe, Hans-Jurgen & Weber, Martin, 1989. "Stochastic dominance with incomplete information on probabilities," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 350-355, December.
    28. Ronny Aboudi & Dominique Thon, 1994. "Efficient Algorithms for Stochastic Dominance Tests Based on Financial Market Data," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 40(4), pages 508-515, April.
    29. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
    30. Huang, Rachel J. & Tzeng, Larry & Wang, Jr-Yan & Zhao, Lin, 2020. "Operational asymptotic stochastic dominance," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 280(1), pages 312-322.
    31. Bruni, Renato & Cesarone, Francesco & Scozzari, Andrea & Tardella, Fabio, 2017. "On exact and approximate stochastic dominance strategies for portfolio selection," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 259(1), pages 322-329.
    32. Janne Kettunen, Derek W. Bunn and William Blyth & Derek W. Bunn & William Blyth, 2011. "Investment Propensities under Carbon Policy Uncertainty," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 77-118.
    33. Ilia Tsetlin & Robert L. Winkler & Rachel J. Huang & Larry Y. Tzeng, 2015. "Generalized Almost Stochastic Dominance," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 63(2), pages 363-377, April.
    34. Egozcue, Martin & Wong, Wing-Keung, 2010. "Gains from diversification on convex combinations: A majorization and stochastic dominance approach," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 200(3), pages 893-900, February.
    35. Wong, Wing-Keung, 2007. "Stochastic dominance and mean-variance measures of profit and loss for business planning and investment," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 182(2), pages 829-843, October.
    36. Levy, Moshe, 2019. "Stocks for the log-run and constant relative risk aversion preferences," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 277(3), pages 1163-1168.
    37. Lozano, Sebastián & Gutiérrez, Ester, 2008. "Data envelopment analysis of mutual funds based on second-order stochastic dominance," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 189(1), pages 230-244, August.
    38. Liesiö, Juuso & Salo, Ahti, 2012. "Scenario-based portfolio selection of investment projects with incomplete probability and utility information," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 217(1), pages 162-172.
    39. Kallio, Markku & Dehghan Hardoroudi, Nasim, 2018. "Second-order stochastic dominance constrained portfolio optimization: Theory and computational tests," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 264(2), pages 675-685.
    40. James E. Hodder & Jens Carsten Jackwerth & Olga Kolokolova, 2015. "Improved Portfolio Choice Using Second-Order Stochastic Dominance," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 19(4), pages 1623-1647.
    41. Haim Shalit & Shlomo Yitzhaki, 1994. "Marginal Conditional Stochastic Dominance," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 40(5), pages 670-684, May.
    42. Thierry Post & Valerio Potì, 2017. "Portfolio Analysis Using Stochastic Dominance, Relative Entropy, and Empirical Likelihood," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 63(1), pages 153-165, January.
    43. Wong, Wing-Keung, 2007. "Stochastic dominance and mean-variance measures of profit and loss for business planning and investment," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 182(2), pages 829-843, October.
    44. Fang, Yi & Post, Thierry, 2017. "Higher-degree stochastic dominance optimality and efficiency," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 261(3), pages 984-993.
    45. Post, Thierry & Kopa, Miloš, 2013. "General linear formulations of stochastic dominance criteria," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 230(2), pages 321-332.
    46. Vilkkumaa, Eeva & Liesiö, Juuso & Salo, Ahti & Ilmola-Sheppard, Leena, 2018. "Scenario-based portfolio model for building robust and proactive strategies," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 266(1), pages 205-220.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Levy, Moshe, 2022. "An inter-temporal CAPM based on First order Stochastic Dominance," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 298(2), pages 734-739.
    2. Francisco Fernández-Navarro & Luisa Martínez-Nieto & Mariano Carbonero-Ruz & Teresa Montero-Romero, 2021. "Mean Squared Variance Portfolio: A Mixed-Integer Linear Programming Formulation," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(3), pages 1-13, January.
    3. Klerkx, Rik & Pelsser, Antoon, 2022. "Narrative-based robust stochastic optimization," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 196(C), pages 266-277.
    4. Kouaissah, Noureddine, 2023. "Robust reward-risk performance measures with weakly second-order stochastic dominance constraints," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 53-62.
    5. Kouaissah, Noureddine, 2021. "Using multivariate stochastic dominance to enhance portfolio selection and warn of financial crises," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 480-493.
    6. Liesiö, Juuso & Kallio, Markku & Argyris, Nikolaos, 2023. "Incomplete risk-preference information in portfolio decision analysis," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 304(3), pages 1084-1098.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Liesiö, Juuso & Kallio, Markku & Argyris, Nikolaos, 2023. "Incomplete risk-preference information in portfolio decision analysis," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 304(3), pages 1084-1098.
    2. Kolokolova, Olga & Le Courtois, Olivier & Xu, Xia, 2022. "Is the index efficient? A worldwide tour with stochastic dominance," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 59(PB).
    3. Post, Thierry & Karabatı, Selçuk & Arvanitis, Stelios, 2018. "Portfolio optimization based on stochastic dominance and empirical likelihood," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 206(1), pages 167-186.
    4. Kallio, Markku & Dehghan Hardoroudi, Nasim, 2018. "Second-order stochastic dominance constrained portfolio optimization: Theory and computational tests," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 264(2), pages 675-685.
    5. Chan, Raymond H. & Chow, Sheung-Chi & Guo, Xu & Wong, Wing-Keung, 2022. "Central moments, stochastic dominance, moment rule, and diversification with an application," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    6. Daskalaki, Charoula & Skiadopoulos, George & Topaloglou, Nikolas, 2017. "Diversification benefits of commodities: A stochastic dominance efficiency approach," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 250-269.
    7. Stelios Arvanitis & Thierry Post & Nikolas Topaloglou, 2021. "Stochastic Bounds for Reference Sets in Portfolio Analysis," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(12), pages 7737-7754, December.
    8. Thierry Post & Miloš Kopa, 2017. "Portfolio Choice Based on Third-Degree Stochastic Dominance," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 63(10), pages 3381-3392, October.
    9. Daskalaki, Charoula & Skiadopoulos, George & Topaloglou, Nikolas, 2017. "Diversification benefits of commodities: A stochastic dominance efficiency approach," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 250-269.
    10. Thierry Post & Valerio Potì, 2017. "Portfolio Analysis Using Stochastic Dominance, Relative Entropy, and Empirical Likelihood," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 63(1), pages 153-165, January.
    11. Fang, Yi & Post, Thierry, 2017. "Higher-degree stochastic dominance optimality and efficiency," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 261(3), pages 984-993.
    12. Thierry Post & Iňaki Rodríguez Longarela, 2021. "Risk Arbitrage Opportunities for Stock Index Options," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 69(1), pages 100-113, January.
    13. Chia-Lin Chang & Michael McAleer & Wing-Keung Wong, 2016. "Management science, economics and finance: A connection," Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE 2016-07, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico.
    14. Christodoulakis, George & Mohamed, Abdulkadir & Topaloglou, Nikolas, 2018. "Optimal privatization portfolios in the presence of arbitrary risk aversion," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 265(3), pages 1172-1191.
    15. Arvanitis, Stelios & Scaillet, Olivier & Topaloglou, Nikolas, 2020. "Spanning tests for Markowitz stochastic dominance," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 217(2), pages 291-311.
    16. Chia-Lin Chang & Michael McAleer & Wing-Keung Wong, 2018. "Big Data, Computational Science, Economics, Finance, Marketing, Management, and Psychology: Connections," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 11(1), pages 1-29, March.
    17. Pinar, Mehmet & Stengos, Thanasis & Topaloglou, Nikolas, 2020. "On the construction of a feasible range of multidimensional poverty under benchmark weight uncertainty," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 281(2), pages 415-427.
    18. Duc Khuong Nguyen & Nikolas Topaloglou & Thomas Walther, 2020. "Asset Classes and Portfolio Diversification: Evidence from a Stochastic Spanning Approach," Working Papers 2020-009, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
    19. Jia Liu & Zhiping Chen & Giorgio Consigli, 2021. "Interval-based stochastic dominance: theoretical framework and application to portfolio choices," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 307(1), pages 329-361, December.
    20. Kouaissah, Noureddine, 2023. "Robust reward-risk performance measures with weakly second-order stochastic dominance constraints," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 53-62.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ejores:v:286:y:2020:i:2:p:755-768. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eor .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.