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European monetary union or hard EMS?

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Author Info

  • Currie, David
  • Levine, Paul
  • Pearlman, Joseph

Abstract

This paper contributes to the debate engendered by the Delors Report on the issue of European Monetary Union. It focuses on the options of a strengthened (or hard-) EMS, with a commitment to a fixed exchange rate relative to the Deutschmark, or a European central bank with full monetary union (EMU). Under hard-EMS, an anti-inflationary reputation is acquired by all as a result of Bundesbank credibility. As regards EMU, it is possible that too rapid a move through the latter stages of the Delors process will produce a central bank with little or no anti-inflation credibility. Here we make starkest assumption of no credibility under EMU, and compare it with hard-EMS for various supply and demand shocks using a two-bloc model, the latter exhibiting short-run wage/price stickiness but with long run natural rate properties. A non-EMS regime with floating exchange rates is used to examine the incentive compatibility of hard-EMS and EMU, with a cooperative reputational regime acting as a benchmark.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal European Economic Review.

Volume (Year): 36 (1992)
Issue (Month): 6 (August)
Pages: 1185-1204

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Handle: RePEc:eee:eecrev:v:36:y:1992:i:6:p:1185-1204

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eer

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Cited by:
  1. VAN AARLE, Bas & ENGWERDA, Jacob C. & PLASMANS, Joseph E.J. & WEEREN, Arie, 1999. "Monetary and fiscal pollcy design under EMU: a dynamic game approach," Working Papers 1999041, University of Antwerp, Faculty of Applied Economics.
  2. Andrew Hughes Hallett & Ella Kavanagh, 2001. "Inflation Under Alternative Exchange Rate Regimes: What Happens When Countries Differ in Size?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 12(2), pages 145-161, April.
  3. Van Aarle B. & Engwerda J.C. & Plasmans J. & Weeren A., 1999. "Macroeconomic policy interaction under EMU : a dynamie game approach," Working Papers 1999020, University of Antwerp, Faculty of Applied Economics.
  4. Jay Bryson, 1994. "Macroeconomic stabilization through monetary and fiscal policy coordination: Implications for European Monetary Union," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 5(4), pages 307-326, October.
  5. Aarle, B. van & Engwerda, J.C. & Plasmans, J.E.J. & Weeren, A.J.T.M., 2001. "Macroeconomic policy interaction under EMU: A dynamic game approach," Open Access publications from Tilburg University urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-85061, Tilburg University.
  6. Patrick Artus, 1992. "Passage à l'union économique et monétaire en Europe : effets sur la croissance et les politiques budgétaires," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 106(5), pages 123-137.

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