IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecomod/v371y2018icp50-59.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Estimating acute mortality of Lepidoptera caused by the cultivation of insect-resistant Bt maize – The LepiX model

Author

Listed:
  • Fahse, Lorenz
  • Papastefanou, Phillip
  • Otto, Mathias

Abstract

The cultivation of Bt maize, genetically modified to be resistant to insect pests, has led to intense scientific and political debate about its possible adverse impacts on biodiversity. To better address this question we developed an individual-based simulation model (LepiX). LepiX considers the temporal dynamics of maize pollen shedding and larval phenology, and pollen deposition on host plants related to distance from the maize field, in order to estimate mortality of lepidopteran larvae exposed to toxic Bt pollen. We employed a refined exposure analysis, comparison to previous approaches, using recent evidence on leaf pollen deposition and accounting for the spatial heterogeneity of pollen on leaves. Moreover, we used a stochastic approach, considering literature data on a minimum dataset for butterfly biology in combination with historic data on temporal pollen deposition to predict the coincidence between larval phenology and pollen deposition. Since conservation management actions may act at the level of the individual for protected species, LepiX, as an individual based spatially explicit model, is suited to assist both risk assessment and management measures based on threshold mortalities. We tested our model using Inachis io (Lepidoptera: Nymphalidae) as butterfly species and the cultivation of insect resistant MON810 maize. In accordance to predictions based on other models we identified mortality risks of I. io larvae for the second larval generation. An analysis of the sensitivity of input parameters stressed the importance of both the slope and the LC50 value of the dose-response curve as well as the earliest day of larval hatching. Using different published data to characterize the dose-response of MON810 pollen to I. io we revealed consequences due to uncertainties in ecotoxicological parameters and thus highlight the importance of key biological parameters for reliable estimates of effects, and decision making (e.g. isolation distances) in risk assessment.

Suggested Citation

  • Fahse, Lorenz & Papastefanou, Phillip & Otto, Mathias, 2018. "Estimating acute mortality of Lepidoptera caused by the cultivation of insect-resistant Bt maize – The LepiX model," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 371(C), pages 50-59.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:371:y:2018:i:c:p:50-59
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2018.01.006
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304380018300152
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2018.01.006?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Holst, Niels & Lang, Andreas & Lövei, Gabor & Otto, Mathias, 2013. "Increased mortality is predicted of Inachis io larvae caused by Bt-maize pollen in European farmland," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 250(C), pages 126-133.
    2. Volker Grimm & Steven F. Railsback, 2006. "Agent-Based Models in Ecology: Patterns and Alternative Theories of Adaptive Behaviour," Contributions to Economics, in: Francesco C. Billari & Thomas Fent & Alexia Prskawetz & Jürgen Scheffran (ed.), Agent-Based Computational Modelling, pages 139-152, Springer.
    3. Francesco C. Billari & Thomas Fent & Alexia Prskawetz & Jürgen Scheffran (ed.), 2006. "Agent-Based Computational Modelling," Contributions to Economics, Springer, number 978-3-7908-1721-8.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Frieß, Johannes L. & Lalyer, Carina R. & Giese, Bernd & Simon, Samson & Otto, Mathias, 2023. "Review of gene drive modelling and implications for risk assessment of gene drive organisms," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 478(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Brian Sauser & Clifton Baldwin & Saba Pourreza & Wesley Randall & David Nowicki, 2018. "Resilience of small- and medium-sized enterprises as a correlation to community impact: an agent-based modeling approach," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 90(1), pages 79-99, January.
    2. Mostafa Shaaban & Carmen Schwartz & Joseph Macpherson & Annette Piorr, 2021. "A Conceptual Model Framework for Mapping, Analyzing and Managing Supply–Demand Mismatches of Ecosystem Services in Agricultural Landscapes," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-19, January.
    3. Jiunyan Wu & Tomoki Sekiguchi, 2020. "A multilevel and dynamic model of intragroup conflict and decision making: application of agent-based modeling," Frontiers of Business Research in China, Springer, vol. 14(1), pages 1-26, December.
    4. Flaminio Squazzoni, 2010. "The impact of agent-based models in the social sciences after 15 years of incursions," History of Economic Ideas, Fabrizio Serra Editore, Pisa - Roma, vol. 18(2), pages 197-234.
    5. Toni Mora, 2010. "BMI and Spanish labour status: evidence by gender from the city of Barcelona," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 11(3), pages 239-253, June.
    6. G. Blind & A. Pyka, 2014. "The rule approach in evolutionary economics: A methodological template for empirical research," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 24(5), pages 1085-1105, November.
    7. Andras Simonovits, 2015. "Optimal Child-Related Transfers and Personal Income Tax with Endogenous Fertility," CERS-IE WORKING PAPERS 1524, Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies.
    8. Droz, Michel & Pękalski, Andrzej, 2019. "Tolerance-fecundity trade-off on a homogeneous habitat," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 411(C).
    9. Cabral, Reniel B. & Geronimo, Rollan C. & Lim, May T. & Aliño, Porfirio M., 2010. "Effect of variable fishing strategy on fisheries under changing effort and pressure: An agent-based model application," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 221(2), pages 362-369.
    10. Eric Innocenti & Claudio Detotto & Corinne Idda & Dawn Cassandra Parker & Dominique Prunetti, 2023. "Spécification conceptuelle MR POTATOHEAD -Property Market Edition du système complexe d'un territoire touristique à deux marchés : application au territoire corse," Post-Print hal-04121402, HAL.
    11. Andras Simonovits, 2015. "Socially Optimal Child-Related Transfers and Personal Income Tax with Endogenous Fertility," CERS-IE WORKING PAPERS 1537, Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies.
    12. Francesco Billari & Alexia Prskawetz & Belinda Aparicio Diaz & Thomas Fent, 2007. "The "Wedding-Ring"," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 17(3), pages 59-82.
    13. Focks, Andreas & ter Horst, Mechteld & van den Berg, Erik & Baveco, Hans & van den Brink, Paul J., 2014. "Integrating chemical fate and population-level effect models for pesticides at landscape scale: New options for risk assessment," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 280(C), pages 102-116.
    14. Mostafa Shaaban & Jürgen Scheffran & Jürgen Böhner & Mohamed S. Elsobki, 2019. "A Dynamic Sustainability Analysis of Energy Landscapes in Egypt: A Spatial Agent-Based Model Combined with Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis," Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, vol. 22(1), pages 1-4.
    15. Sascha Holzhauer & Friedrich Krebs & Andreas Ernst, 2013. "Considering baseline homophily when generating spatial social networks for agent-based modelling," Computational and Mathematical Organization Theory, Springer, vol. 19(2), pages 128-150, June.
    16. Meysam Alizadeh & Claudio Cioffi-Revilla & Andrew Crooks, 2017. "Generating and analyzing spatial social networks," Computational and Mathematical Organization Theory, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 362-390, September.
    17. Font Vivanco, David & McDowall, Will & Freire-González, Jaume & Kemp, René & van der Voet, Ester, 2016. "The foundations of the environmental rebound effect and its contribution towards a general framework," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 60-69.
    18. Fent, Thomas, 2006. "Collective Social Dynamics and Social Norms," MPRA Paper 2841, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Mateusz Denys & Tomasz Gubiec & Ryszard Kutner, 2014. "Universality of Tsallis q-exponential of interoccurrence times within the microscopic model of cunning agents," Papers 1411.1689, arXiv.org.
    20. Thomas Fent & Belinda Aparicio Diaz & Alexia Prskawetz, 2013. "Family policies in the context of low fertility and social structure," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 29(37), pages 963-998.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:371:y:2018:i:c:p:50-59. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/ecological-modelling .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.