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Management of invading pathogens should be informed by epidemiology rather than administrative boundaries

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  • Thompson, Robin N.
  • Cobb, Richard C.
  • Gilligan, Christopher A.
  • Cunniffe, Nik J.

Abstract

Plant and animal disease outbreaks have significant ecological and economic impacts. The spatial extent of control is often informed solely by administrative geography – for example, quarantine of an entire county or state once an invading disease is detected – with little regard for pathogen epidemiology. We present a stochastic model for the spread of a plant pathogen that couples spread in the natural environment and transmission via the nursery trade, and use it to illustrate that control deployed according to administrative boundaries is almost always sub-optimal. We use sudden oak death (caused by Phytophthora ramorum) in mixed forests in California as motivation for our study, since the decision as to whether or not to deploy plant trade quarantine is currently undertaken on a county-by-county basis for that system. However, our key conclusion is applicable more generally: basing management of any disease entirely upon administrative borders does not balance the cost of control with the possible economic and ecological costs of further spread in the optimal fashion.

Suggested Citation

  • Thompson, Robin N. & Cobb, Richard C. & Gilligan, Christopher A. & Cunniffe, Nik J., 2016. "Management of invading pathogens should be informed by epidemiology rather than administrative boundaries," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 324(C), pages 28-32.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:324:y:2016:i:c:p:28-32
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2015.12.014
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Harwood, Thomas D. & Xu, Xiangming & Pautasso, Marco & Jeger, Mike J. & Shaw, Michael W., 2009. "Epidemiological risk assessment using linked network and grid based modelling: Phytophthora ramorum and Phytophthora kernoviae in the UK," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 220(23), pages 3353-3361.
    2. Pimentel, David & Zuniga, Rodolfo & Morrison, Doug, 2005. "Update on the environmental and economic costs associated with alien-invasive species in the United States," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(3), pages 273-288, February.
    3. Nik J Cunniffe & Francisco F Laranjeira & Franco M Neri & R Erik DeSimone & Christopher A Gilligan, 2014. "Cost-Effective Control of Plant Disease When Epidemiological Knowledge Is Incomplete: Modelling Bahia Bark Scaling of Citrus," PLOS Computational Biology, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(8), pages 1-14, August.
    4. Carol Y. Lin, 2008. "Modeling Infectious Diseases in Humans and Animals by KEELING, M. J. and ROHANI, P," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 64(3), pages 993-993, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Robin N Thompson & Christopher A Gilligan & Nik J Cunniffe, 2016. "Detecting Presymptomatic Infection Is Necessary to Forecast Major Epidemics in the Earliest Stages of Infectious Disease Outbreaks," PLOS Computational Biology, Public Library of Science, vol. 12(4), pages 1-18, April.
    2. Robin N Thompson & Christopher A Gilligan & Nik J Cunniffe, 2018. "Control fast or control smart: When should invading pathogens be controlled?," PLOS Computational Biology, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(2), pages 1-21, February.
    3. David R J Pleydell & Samuel Soubeyrand & Sylvie Dallot & Gérard Labonne & Joël Chadœuf & Emmanuel Jacquot & Gaël Thébaud, 2018. "Estimation of the dispersal distances of an aphid-borne virus in a patchy landscape," PLOS Computational Biology, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(4), pages 1-24, April.
    4. Morag F. Macpherson & Adam Kleczkowski & John R. Healey & Chris Quine & Nick Hanley, 2016. "The Effects of Invasive Pests and Diseases on Strategies for Forest Diversification," Discussion Papers in Environment and Development Economics 2016-11, University of St. Andrews, School of Geography and Sustainable Development.
    5. Macpherson, Morag F. & Kleczkowski, Adam & Healey, John R. & Quine, Christopher P. & Hanley, Nick, 2017. "The effects of invasive pests and pathogens on strategies for forest diversification," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 350(C), pages 87-99.

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