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Impacts of hydropower and climate change on drivers of ecological productivity of Southeast Asia's most important wetland

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  • Arias, Mauricio E.
  • Cochrane, Thomas A.
  • Kummu, Matti
  • Lauri, Hannu
  • Holtgrieve, Gordon W.
  • Koponen, Jorma
  • Piman, Thanapon

Abstract

The Tonle Sap is the largest lake in Southeast Asia and its fishery supports the livelihood and nutrition of millions of people in Cambodia. However, the hydrological and ecological drivers of this ecosystem are changing as a result of hydropower development on the Mekong River and global climate change. The objective of this study was to quantify the impacts of the Mekong's future hydrological alterations on aquatic net primary production (NPP) of the Tonle Sap. A three-dimensional (3D) hydrodynamic model was used to evaluate eleven scenarios of hydropower development and climate change, with respect to water flows, suspended sediments, and floodplain habitat cover, which were identified as the key drivers of productivity change. We found that hydropower development would cause the most distinct changes in seasonality by reducing wet season water levels and increasing dry season water levels. Combined scenarios of hydropower and climate change revealed that areas of open water and rainfed/irrigated rice would expand by 35±3% and 16±5%, respectively, while optimal area for gallery forest would decrease by 40±27%. The estimated annual net sedimentation was projected to decrease by 56±3% from the 3.28±0.93 million tons baseline values. Annual average NPP in the open water and in the floodplain was 1.07±0.06 and 3.67±0.61 million tons C, respectively, and a reduction of 34±4% is expected. Our study concludes that Tonle Sap's drivers of ecological productivity – habitat cover, sedimentation, and NPP – will face a significant change, and a decline of its ecosystem's services should be expected if mitigation and adaptation strategies are not implemented.

Suggested Citation

  • Arias, Mauricio E. & Cochrane, Thomas A. & Kummu, Matti & Lauri, Hannu & Holtgrieve, Gordon W. & Koponen, Jorma & Piman, Thanapon, 2014. "Impacts of hydropower and climate change on drivers of ecological productivity of Southeast Asia's most important wetland," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 272(C), pages 252-263.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:272:y:2014:i:c:p:252-263
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2013.10.015
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    2. Espécie, Mariana de Assis & de Carvalho, Pedro Ninô & Pinheiro, Maria Fernanda Bacile & Rosenthal, Vinicius Mesquita & da Silva, Leyla A. Ferreira & Pinheiro, Mariana Rodrigues de Carvalhaes & Espig, , 2019. "Ecosystem services and renewable power generation: A preliminary literature review," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 140(C), pages 39-51.
    3. Va Dany & Ros Taplin & Bhishna Bajracharya & Michael Regan & Louis Lebel, 2017. "Entry points for climate-informed planning for the water resources and agriculture sectors in Cambodia," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 19(4), pages 1167-1188, August.
    4. Va Dany & Louis Lebel, 2020. "Integrating Concerns with Climate Change into Local Development Planning in Cambodia," Review of Policy Research, Policy Studies Organization, vol. 37(2), pages 221-243, March.
    5. Kongmeng Ly & Graciela Metternicht & Lucy Marshall, 2020. "Linking Changes in Land Cover and Land Use of the Lower Mekong Basin to Instream Nitrate and Total Suspended Solids Variations," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(7), pages 1-38, April.
    6. Horbulyk, Ted & Price, Joseph P. G., 2018. "Pricing reforms for sustainable water use and management in Vietnam," IWMI Working Papers H048608, International Water Management Institute.
    7. Felkner, John S. & Lee, Hyun & Shaikh, Sabina & Kolata, Alan & Binford, Michael, 2022. "The interrelated impacts of credit access, market access and forest proximity on livelihood strategies in Cambodia," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    8. Verena Sulzgruber & David Wünsch & Heimo Walter & Markus Haider, 2020. "FP-TES: Fluidization Based Particle Thermal Energy Storage, Part II: Experimental Investigations," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(17), pages 1-17, August.
    9. Chea, Ratha & Guo, Chuanbo & Grenouillet, Gaël & Lek, Sovan, 2016. "Toward an ecological understanding of a flood-pulse system lake in a tropical ecosystem: Food web structure and ecosystem health," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 323(C), pages 1-11.
    10. Dandan Zhao & Hong S. He & Wen J. Wang & Lei Wang & Haibo Du & Kai Liu & Shengwei Zong, 2018. "Predicting Wetland Distribution Changes under Climate Change and Human Activities in a Mid- and High-Latitude Region," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(3), pages 1-14, March.
    11. Shoyama, Kikuko & Kamiyama, Chiho & Morimoto, Junko & Ooba, Makoto & Okuro, Toshiya, 2017. "A review of modeling approaches for ecosystem services assessment in the Asian region," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 26(PB), pages 316-328.
    12. Yongcai Dang & Hongshi He & Dandan Zhao & Michael Sunde & Haibo Du, 2020. "Quantifying the Relative Importance of Climate Change and Human Activities on Selected Wetland Ecosystems in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(3), pages 1-17, January.
    13. Kaura, Mohit & Arias, Mauricio E. & Benjamin, Joshua A. & Oeurng, Chantha & Cochrane, Thomas A., 2019. "Benefits of forest conservation on riverine sediment and hydropower in the Tonle Sap Basin, Cambodia," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 39(C).
    14. Bilgili, Faik & Lorente, Daniel Balsalobre & Kuşkaya, Sevda & Ünlü, Fatma & Gençoğlu, Pelin & Rosha, Pali, 2021. "The role of hydropower energy in the level of CO2 emissions: An application of continuous wavelet transform," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 178(C), pages 283-294.

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