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Population abundance, size structure and sex-ratio in an insular lizard

Author

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  • Tenan, Simone
  • Rotger Vallespir, Andreu
  • Igual, José Manuel
  • Moya, Óscar
  • Royle, J. Andrew
  • Tavecchia, Giacomo

Abstract

Estimating population size and understanding its variation is a fundamental, yet complicated, aim of many ecological studies. We considered the problem of estimating spring and autumn population abundance, size-dependent population structure and sex-ratio of the endemic Balearic Lizard, Podarcis lilfordi from a three occasions capture-recapture study. We used a Bayesian formulation of individual covariate models to incorporate individual sex, size and trap-response. We first considered a set of simulated data with a medium-to-low probability of recapture and individual recapture heterogeneity to evaluate potential problems in model fitting and selection. Results from simulated data indicated a low performance in parameter estimation and model selection when probability of detection was low (0.15–0.30). We found a negative permanent trap response and a positive effect of size on detection probability in the spring survey but not in the autumn one. The estimated mean densities varied from about 800 to 1000lizardsha−1, a high value when comparing with mainland lizard populations. The observed increase in abundance was probably due to a drop in territorial behaviour and the immigration of females into the area sampled. As a consequence, sex-ratio changed from nearly even in June (mean posterior, 95%CRI; 0.928, 0.676–1.167) to a female-skewed population in October (0.612, 0.478–0.772).

Suggested Citation

  • Tenan, Simone & Rotger Vallespir, Andreu & Igual, José Manuel & Moya, Óscar & Royle, J. Andrew & Tavecchia, Giacomo, 2013. "Population abundance, size structure and sex-ratio in an insular lizard," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 267(C), pages 39-47.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:267:y:2013:i:c:p:39-47
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2013.07.015
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Little R.J., 2004. "To Model or Not To Model? Competing Modes of Inference for Finite Population Sampling," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 99, pages 546-556, January.
    2. J. Andrew Royle, 2009. "Analysis of Capture–Recapture Models with Individual Covariates Using Data Augmentation," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 65(1), pages 267-274, March.
    3. J. Andrew Royle, 2008. "Modeling Individual Effects in the Cormack–Jolly–Seber Model: A State–Space Formulation," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 64(2), pages 364-370, June.
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    1. Tenan, S. & Maffioletti, C. & Caccianiga, M. & Compostella, C. & Seppi, R. & Gobbi, M., 2016. "Hierarchical models for describing space-for-time variations in insect population size and sex-ratio along a primary succession," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 329(C), pages 18-28.

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